Atletico Madrid vs. Club Brugge Champions League Betting Preview: Atletico to Cover in Must-Win Spot

Atletico Madrid vs. Club Brugge Odds

Atletico Madrid host Club Brugge in a must-win spot for the Spanish side in Matchweek 4.

Atletico Madrid lost the reverse fixture to Club Brugge, but it was a very unfair result. Atletico had lost back to back road matches in the Champions League to Leverkusen and Club Brugge, but will be back in the friendly confines of the Wando Metropolitano Stadium.

Club Brugge are surprisingly sitting atop of Group B with three wins in their first three Champions League matches. The Belgian champions now can play conservative to try and get through to the knockout stage, so look for them to allow Atletico to control the ball.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico were very unfortunate to lose 2-0 to Club Brugge in the last meeting. They won on xG 1.88 to 1.64, outshot Brugge 19 to 7, had 34 touches in the penalty area compared to just 12 for Club Brugge and had 17 box entries compared to five for Club Brugge.

The thing is, we see Diego Simeone as a conservative manager — but last season in La Liga, Atletico had a higher average defensive line than Real Madrid and had the third best field tilt %, per markstats.club.

Atletico have been playing pretty well in La Liga this season, as they are currently sitting in fourth place with a +3.7 xGD and once again are allowing only 0.77 npxG per 90 minutes. So, if they can convert their chances, I have no doubt they can beat this Club Brugge team.

Club Brugge

In Brugge’s first three matches, they have taken 11 shots from inside the penalty area, six of them have gone in (not counting the penalty) and they’ve created 4.8 xG on an xThreat of 3.5. Against Atletico they only took three shots inside the penalty area and scored two of them. This type of finishing rate is not sustainable. 

However, the overperformance offensively is only one side of the story.

Brugge have also conceded 4.2 expected goals, 48 shots and 96 touches in their penalty area and still somehow have not conceded a goal. It partly has to do with their opponents being very unlucky in terms of finishing and Simon Mignolet standing on his head, having a +2.9 post shot xG +/-. per fbref.com.

Brugge have also been in terrible form in the Belgian Pro League, losing two of their last three matches including a really bad loss to Westerlo over the weekend at home.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Negative regression is coming for this Club Brugge team. They can't constantly keep up this type of finishing rate and defensive performance without conceding a goal. So, I am going to bet on that regression coming in this match.

I have Atletico Madrid's spread projected at -2.00, so I like the value on them -1.5 at +123 (BetRivers).

The Pick: Atletico Madrid -1.5 (+123)