Tuesday Bundesliga Preview: Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Werder Bremen Odds & Best Bet Picks
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- Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. ET, Borussia Monchengladbach will take on Werder Bremen in their Bundesliga match.
- Based on updated Bundelsliga odds, Borussia Monchengladbach are short -130 favorites in today's match.
- Should bettors target the underdogs? Or are the favorites the smart wager?
Borussia Monchengladbach at Werder Bremen Odds
|Werder Bremen odds||+340
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
After a weekend defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Monchengladbach will look for a quick return to winning against 17th-place Werder Bremen on Tuesday afternoon.
I wrote a few weeks ago that there would be spots down the stretch to bet on Bremen, and last week was exactly that spot. Playing against an overvalued Freiburg team, Bremen snuck out a 1-0 win despite a pretty mediocre performance. They lost 0.7-0.8 on expected goals (xG) but defended well to protect its 1-0 lead for the entire second half.
Meanwhile, Gladbach lost 3-1 to Leverkusen, putting a dent in its Champions League aspirations as they now sit fifth behind Leverkusen and RB Leipzig.
Expected goals is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Despite the 3-1 scoreline, Monchengladbach was pretty even with Leverkusen. With the game tied at one, Gladbach had a chance to grab a lead in the second half and had a legitimate penalty claim that could have put them ahead 2-1. The penalty wasn’t given, and Leverkusen earned a penalty of their own and scored on the counterattack in the next sequence.
Leverkusen finished more of its chances in what was a wide open game. I’m not concerned about Gladbach at all after that loss, and they still rank third in the league in xG difference per 90 at +0.58. That number is nearly a full goal better than Bremen, who sits 11th at -0.32 per game.
xG map for Gladbach – Leverkusen
both teams played basically the game they wanted to play, both teams had a good penalty shout, Leverkusen shot better and got the call pic.twitter.com/wl2lDaChYF
— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) May 23, 2020
Because of Gladbach’s balanced scoring attack, including six players with five or more Bundesliga goals, they should be able to overwhelm the Bremen defense, which has been torn apart by most of the best German sides this season. In eight games against top-five sides this season, Bremen has conceded at least two goals in each one, including a 3-1 defeat to Gladbach in the reverse fixture.
While Bremen may be well overdue for some positive regression defensively, Gladbach has also underperformed its xG on offense scoring just 53 goals despite 60 xGF. The attacking duo of Alassane Pléa and Marcus Thuram should produce 2-3 goals for Gladbach, more than enough to see out the win.
Just two weeks ago, Leverkusen was -140 on the road at Bremen, and now Gladbach is in the same spot, yet Gladbach is still a better team than Leverkusen and now at a better price.
The market has already moved in favor of Monchengladbach since this opened up at -110. This could be the market starting to adjust to the lack of impact of home field advantage.
In the 18 matches since the Bundesliga returned, the home win percentage dropped from 43.3% before the layoff to 16.7% since. The market has moved about 25 cents in Gladbach’s favor, and I’d bet that number up to -145.
The Bet: Borussia Monchengladbach (up to -145)