The Premier League returned to action this weekend, and with five games on today's EPL schedule, we have plenty of betting options.
Our staff has come up clutch with 5 picks to get the ball rolling. So, continue reading for our Premier League best bets for Saturday, August 16.
Premier League Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our Premier League betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 a.m. | |
  | 10:00 a.m. | |
  | 10:00 a.m. | |
  | 10:00 a.m. | |
  | 10:00 a.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our Soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Back Rogers to Hit the Ground Running
After being forced off in Aston Villa’s final pre-season game, Morgan Rogers has been cleared to play against Newcastle. After 18 goal involvements last season (0.47 per game), the price to score or assist is one to consider.
BETSiE projects that Aston Villa will score 1.56xG against Newcastle in the opening fixture, suggesting that the hosts’ forward line will be presented with the opportunities to score or lay on an assist for their teammates.
In the most recent head-to-head fixture, where Aston Villa won 4-1 against Newcastle in April, Morgan Rogers ended the game having taken four shots, recorded three shots on target, and produced an assist for Villa’s final goal.
Pick: Morgan Rogers to Score or Assist (+120)
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Fulham vs Brighton & Hove Albion Best Bet: Confident Seagulls
The Seagulls have enjoyed a productive pre-season despite the loss of Joao Pedro and look all set to hit the ground running in the Premier League. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have won three of their four matches in preparation for this season, and will be confident of making a strong start in front of their fans.
The Cottagers have lost four of their last six league matches on the road, and managed to beat just three teams that finished in the top eight on the road in the entirety of last season. Fulham also has a poor record away to Brighton. They have won just one of their previous seven matches at this ground. Over that period, they have netted an average of just 0.86 goals per game.
Pick: Brighton To Win (-111)
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West Ham vs Sunderland: Over/Under Pick
Recent trends show newly promoted teams are not profitable on the Over 2.5 Goals market, and Sunderland returned to the Premier League as the lowest-scoring of the Championship's top six clubs — just 58 goals scored and 44 conceded.
The Hammers added firepower to their attack in the transfer window, but it’ll be difficult for the new players to impact games straight away. Last season, they averaged 1.21 goals per game, the sixth worst record in the league.
These factors combined suggest a game where both sides may prioritize a defensive approach, leading to fewer scoring chances and making the under 2.75 goals line an appealing option.
Pick: Under 2.75 goals (-143)
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Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur: Tough Scheduling Gives Over/Under Value
Tottenham vs Burnley is scheduled just 67 hours after the hosts’ game in Italy against PSG in the UEFA Super Cup. Not only that, but BETSiE, our in-house data model, projects only 2.53xG in the match, implying the Asian Goal line is value.
Considering the injuries to James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Destiny Udogie, and potentially Dominic Solanke, Thomas Frank will struggle to field his best eleven in the opening months of the season. It might not be enough for Burnley — who recorded 30 clean sheets last season — to record a memorable victory on the opening day, but it could present an opportunity to bet on a relatively low-scoring match.
Pick: Under 3.0 Goals (-139)
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Manchester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderders: Expect Several Goals
The most recent ten Premier League fixtures between these two sides account for an average of 3.50 goals per 90, suggesting this is a matchup for those who prefer betting on a goal fest rather than a cagey game.
This has been a winning selection in eight of the ten recent meetings between the two clubs. More recently, since Vitor Pereira took charge of Wolves in December of last season, his side has scored 15 goals and conceded 12 in 11 outings. That 2.45 goals per 90 average falls under what’s required here. However, with Man City involved, any Premier League average goal total will often increase.
Pick: Over 2.75 Asian Goal Line (-122)
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