Everton and Leeds United will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at City Ground in West Bridgford, England.
Leeds is favored at a +138 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-105o / -135u) goals.
Let's get into my Everton vs. Leeds prediction.
Everton vs. Leeds Prediction
Pick: Both Teams To Score – No
My Everton vs. Leeds best bet is that at least one of the teams will not score in this match.
Everton vs. Leeds Odds
| Everton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -185 | 2.5 -105o / -135u | +200 |
| Leeds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +125 | 2.5 -105o / -135u | +138 |
Everton vs. Leeds Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Both Teams To Score – No (+105)
Leg 2: Under 2.5 Goals (-139)
Leg 3: Match – Under 39.5 Throw-Ins (-120)
The away team provides a solid foundation for any selection that opposes goals. Our in-house data projection model, BETSiE, agrees. The 2.17xG match total projection is the lowest of all Premier League fixtures across the opening week.
Twelve of 19 Everton away matches ended with BTTS – No last season, the best return in this market in the division. If Leeds can bring that kind of defensive solidity into the Premier League against superior opposition, this might be the perfect matchup for BTTS – No bettors.
Additionally, Everton were the most profitable team to bet on last season in the under 2.5 goals market. The Toffees returned +10.03 units for ‘unders’ bettors in 2024/25.
No team recorded more under 2.5-goal games when playing away from home than Everton —14 of 19 trips away from Goodison Park saw two goals or fewer.
Almost every offensive stat is affected; throw-ins, for example. Since David Moyes returned to Everton in January, their league games have seen an average of 35.53 throws.
There have been 39 or fewer in their last nine competitive matches. Their most recent preseason friendly against Roma saw just 28 throws.
Everton vs. Leeds Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Everton | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 36% | 27% | 37% |
Projected Total Goals
| Everton | Total Goals | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | 2.17 | 1.09 |
Everton vs. Leeds Betting Analysis
Leeds United are back in the Premier League after winning the EFL Championship with an impressive 100 points. They will be eager to capitalize on home advantage.
Under Daniel Farke, they've reinforced significantly this summer, bringing in experienced players expected to make immediate impacts, including goalkeeper Lucas Perri and midfielder Anton Stach.
Historically, Everton has had the upper hand in recent encounters, unbeaten in the last five league meetings. But Leeds, with their passionate home crowd and tactical flexibility, aspire to turn the tables, and the Leeds vs. Everton odds see the hosts as narrow favorites to win.
The tactical battle will be intriguing. Leeds, under Farke, is known for dominating possession, but they may need to adapt their strategy against a seasoned Premier League side.
Everton have traditionally been solid defensively under Moyes, and with new signings, they hope to improve their goal tally.
In the 2024/25 season, Everton struggled offensively, failing to score in 15 matches —the highest among teams that avoided relegation. They particularly faltered on the road, drawing blanks in eight away games (42%), matching the record of relegated Leicester City and Southampton.
Since David Moyes's return in January, Everton’s away fixtures in the Premier League have averaged just 1.78 goals, with seven of nine matches featuring two goals or fewer.
Everton vs. Leeds Projected Starting Lineups
Everton
Pickford; O'Brien, Keane, Tarkowski, Aznou; Gueye, Garner, Alcaraz, McNeil, Ndiaye; Beto.
Leeds
Perri; Gudmundsson, Rodon, Struijk, Schmidt; S. Longstaff, Stach; James, Aaronson, Gnonto; Piroe.
