Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Wolfsburg Odds, Betting Preview: Tuesday La Liga Predictions and Pick

Wolfsburg at Borussia Monchengladbach Odds and Pick

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We've got a huge game to kick off Matchday 32 in the Bundesliga as Wolfsburg heads to Borussia Park to take on Borussia Monchengladbach.

Gladbach hung with Bayern Munich over the weekend and were close to ending the Bavarians' nine-match winning streak. An 86th-minute goal ended those hopes, however.

Wolfsburg were last seen blowing a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw against Freiburg.

Both of these teams have plenty to play for over the rest of the season. Borussia Monchengladbach is ahead of Leverkusen by goal differential for the fourth and final Champions League spot, while Wolfsburg are trying to hold off Hoffenheim and Freiburg for a spot in the Europa League.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Die Fohlen have not been in good form since the Bundesliga returned. With only seven points in six matches they really need to pick up their level if they want to qualify for the Champions League. Most notably, Borussia Monchengladbach needs to improve their defensive play.

Die Fohlen have conceded 1.55 expected goals per game over the last six matches, a slight uptick from their usual 1.41 xGA per game. Gladbach's struggles in front of their own net have led to wide-open games. In fact, since the Bundesliga lit back up, matches involving Marco Rose's side have averaged 3.38 total expected goals.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

These high scoring matches are nothing new for Gladbach, who average 3.54 total xG per match on the season. That number only increases when Die Fohlen play at home. On average, a whopping 4.04 expected goals are created inside the confines of Borussia Park and 80% of Gladbach's home matches have soared past 2.5 goals this season.

Wolfsburg boast one of the Bundesliga's best defenses but I still think Die Fohlen will find a way to turn this game into a goal-fest.

Wolfsburg

Die Wölfe have been in a weird run of form, as all of their success since the restart has come on the road. Wolfsburg have won all three of their matches and boast a +3.42 xG differential away from Volkswagen Arena since the season picked back up.

Wolfsburg grades out as one of the strongest defensive teams in the Bundesliga, allowing just 1.17 xG per match.

That being said, the goals are coming in bunches in Wolfsburg matches. An average of 3.33 total expected goals have been generated in Wolfsburg's last six games, which is well above their season average of 2.79.

Given the fact they are playing one of the highest-scoring offenses in the Bundesliga, I think we are going to see a lot of goals in this match.

Analysis

Based on my model, I think the current moneyline and spread on DraftKings is spot on:

• Borussia Monchengladbach projected odds: +109 (47.78% win probability)
• Borussia Monchengladbach projected xG: 1.75
• Wolfsburg projected odds: +247 (28.83%)
• Wolfsburg projected xG: 1.32
• Draw projected odds: +327 (23.33%)

My model projects this game for 3.07 expected goals, so I think taking a shot on the Over 3.5 goals at +155 is great value.