Lazio vs. Club Brugge Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday Champions League Match (Dec. 8)
Vincent Van Doornick/Isosport/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Noa Lang of Club Brugge.
- Lazio is a favorite over Club Brugge on Tuesday afternoon in the Champions League group play, with the total at 2.5.
- It's essentially a play-in match to advance to the UCL knockout stage, with Lazio just needing a draw.
- Brad Cunningham's model gives Club Brugge a better chance than the betting market, and the fact that Lazio just needs a draw has him playing Brugge +0.5.
Lazio vs. Club Brugge Odds
|Lazio odds||-143 [Bet Now]|
|Club Brugge odds||+380 [Bet Now]|
|Draw||+300 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-159/+128) [Bet Now]|
|Time||Tuesday, 12:55 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS All-Access|
Tuesday’s match between Lazio and Club Brugge is essentially a play-in match for the Round of 16.
Lazio is currently in second place and one point behind Dortmund for the top spot, while Club Brugge sit two points behind them. So, for champions of Belgium it’s simple: win and you’re in the knockout stage.
All Lazio needs is a draw and they’re moving on. However, they can overtake the top spot in the group with a win and a Dortmund draw/loss to Zenit.
Lazio are sizable favorites, but they struggled in Belgium the last time these two met, so securing a spot in the knockout stage will be no easy task.
Since Oct. 20, I Biancocelesti have lost only one match and have yet to lose in Champions League play. However, they have struggled a bit in Serie A as they have not beaten a team in that is currently in the top half of the table. Lazio are in seventh place in the table and have the ninth-best expected goal differential at -1.6.
The main issue for Simone Inzaghi is that his offense has not performed at the same level that it did in 2019/20. Last season, Lazio averaged 1.78 xGF per match. This season that number has dipped down to 1.31
Lazio was lucky to escape with a 1-1 draw against Club Brugge three weeks ago, as the Belgian champions won the xG battle 2.16 to 0.71. They will need to put together a much better performance if they are going to move on the Round of 16.
The Belgian champions are no strangers to the Champions League as this is the fourth straight year they have qualified for Europe’s biggest competition. Through their first five matches, they’ve accumulated a +0.5 expected goal differential, so they are no pushovers.
So far it seems Dortmund is the only team Club Brugge struggles with. If you throw out their matches against Dortmund, in which they’ve been dominated 6-0 on aggregate, it tells a different story. In their two matches against Zenit and their previous match against Lazio, Brugge has seven points and a +2.56 expected goal differential and are averaging over two xGF per match.
Club Brugge is going to throw everything they have at Lazio and have the talent to pull off the upset.
Projections and Pick
With Lazio only needing a draw in this match, I think it is a good opportunity to grab Club Brugge’s spread of +0.5 at plus money. So, I am going to back the Belgian champions to get at least a draw from this match at +118 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Club Brugge +0.5 (+118)