Betting Market Suggests England-Croatia May Need Extra Time
Sipa USA-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Croatia celebrating
England and Croatia will meet on Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. ET for a place in the World Cup final.
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Here’s a look at the offshore betting market and how the public has bet each team throughout the tournament.
Keep in mind that all moneylines, spreads and totals are based on 90 minutes of regulation.
England opened as the +137 favorites to win in regulation, and the line hasn’t strayed too far off that number. As for Croatia, they were first offered at +251 and quickly moved to +245, but since then, the odds haven risen to +266. They’re receiving 32% of bets, which is nearly in line with their implied win probability (27%).
The majority of tickets has come in on England from the get-go, and they’re currently receiving 55% of the moneyline share. Despite the early support among the public, oddsmakers haven’t budged much on England and they’re sitting at +135 to win.
That leaves the draw, which has seen a bit of early sharp action around the market. It opened at +219 but has dipped down to +211 behind just 13% of bets. This would be the third straight match for Croatia to go to extra time, which would equate to another whole game.
With Croatia’s style of play, it’s no surprise the total opened at a low 2 goals once again, and the juice on the over hasn’t shifted much (-104 to -105).
Just like the France-Belgium semifinal, nearly 90% of public bettors are taking the over, but there’s been no movement toward the over. This could be shaping up for a 1-1 draw that will need extra time.
Public Support Throughout World Cup
England were a very popular bet as big favorites in the first two games (vs. Tunisia, vs. Panama), but the public jumped off the bandwagon after that. After losing to Belgium, 1-0, England barely received the majority of tickets against Colombia and Sweden.
Besides the match against Argentina, Croatia have been one of the trendier wagers throughout the tournament. They’ve received at least 63% of bets in four of five matches, however they cashed for the public in only two of them. They’re getting just 32% of bets at +266 against England, but similar numbers against Argentina certainly worked out well.