European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, More (Oct. 29-Nov. 1)

We had a pretty chaotic week in La Liga and Serie A, with a ton of big clubs going down in major upsets.

This weekend,  a few huge matchups headline the card, with Paris Saint-Germain kicking things off Friday when it hosts Lille in Ligue 1 action. On Sunday, we get a stellar matchup between Roma and AC Milan in Serie A play.

Even though we are only a quarter of a way through the season, La Liga and the Italian top flight look completely up for grabs, while PSG and Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) look like they're running away with their respective domestic leagues.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Arminia Bielefeld vs. Mainz

Arminia Bielefeld is horrible at both ends of the pitch. They're bottom four in shots per 90, PPDA (Opposition Passes Allowed per Defensive Action), Box Entries allowed and cross completed into their own penalty area.

Bielefeld is also the No. 1 team in the Bundesliga in total pressures, but have the worst pressure success rate. Unfortunately, that's exactly how you beat Mainz, because they’re the worst team against pressure in the German top flight.

However, the Mainz offense has been pretty good. They're ninth in NPxG and sixth in big scoring chances. The club also just put it on Augsburg, who's a very similar team stylistically to Bielefeld, in last Friday's 4-1 win where it created 3.53 expected goals.

What I love about this matchup for Mainz is I don’t know how Bielefeld is going to create any high-quality chances. The Mainz defense is really good, allowing only 1.00 NPxG per outing, which second best in the Bundesliga. They've also only allowed five big scoring chances, which is the best mark in the league.

As for Bielefeld, the outfit is 17th in NPxG, 13th in shot per 90 minutes and has only created five big scoring chances themselves, which is last in the league.

I think Mainz has a fantastic matchup, so I'll back them at +100 via DraftKings as my top selection and would play it down to -110 odds.

Pick: Mainz ML (+100)

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Wolfsburg

Bayer Leverkusen has been incredibly lucky on the offensive side of the pitch. The club has scored 23 goals off 13.87 xG this campaign. Leverkusen is 10th in shots per 90 minutes and 13th in big scoring chances.

Most importantly, though, they're one of the worst teams in the Bundesliga against pressure, as they're 18th in Offensive PPDA. Now, they're going up against a Wolfsburg side that's fifth in PPDA and ninth in pressure success rate. Also, Leverkusen's match against Köln this past weekend was a perfect encapsulation of how lucky they've been in the first division this season. 

(graphic via infogol.net)

Wolfsburg might be in ninth place in the league, but its defense is just as good as it was last season. Wolfsburg is fourth in NPpxG allowed, third in shots allowed per 90 minutes and second in box entries allowed in the Bundesliga, per fbref.com.

Their offense has been pretty efficient as well, averaging 1.25 xG per match. The problem is they aren't creating a lot big scoring chances, but they're seventh in shots per 90 minutes, seventh in box entries and third in crosses completed into the box. That said, the opportunities are there.

I only have Leverkusen projected at +149, so I think there's some value on Wolfsburg's spread of +0.5 at -110 odds at DraftKings and would play it up to -120 odds.

Pick: Wolfsburg +0.5 (-110)

Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Atalanta vs. Lazio

Atalanta might not be at the level as they've been in years past, but they're still one of the best clubs in Italy. They're averaging 1.82 xG per match, plus they sit fifth in shots per 90 minutes and first in box entries. More importantly, they're going up against a Lazio defense that's allowing 1.67 xG per game, which is 13th in the first division.

Duvan Zapata has been on fire up top for Atalanta, scoring five goals and carrying a 0.98 xG per minute scoring rate. He should be able to penetrate a Lazio backline that 16th in box entries allowed and 18th in crosses completed into their own penalty area, per fbref.com.

Atalanta's defense has still been really good despite the loss of Christian Romero to Tottenham Hotspur during the summer transfer window. Their press is still one of the best in Serie A, as their third in PPDA, first in pressure success rate and second in ball recoveries.

The Lazio offense is due for a ton of negative regression, as they've scored 20 goals off of 15.14 xG thus far. They're also only 15th in shots/90 minutes and 18th in crosses completed into the penalty area.

I have Atalanta projected at -130, so I think there's value on the club at -105 on DraftKings and would play it up to -115 odds.

Pick: Atalanta ML (-105)

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Fiorentina vs. Spezia

For the season, Fiorentina has a -1.89 NPxGDiff, but sits in eighth place in the Italian top flight.

A lot of that is mainly due to their offense that I know has been better for the last two matches, but only created 8.62 NPxG in 10 outings That's only good enough for a 19th place in the Serie A statistics. They’re also 16th in shots/90 minutes, 18th in big scoring chances  and 15th in PPDA. That's significant because Spezia is No. 1 in Serie A in PPDA, so Fiorentina could have some issues with Spezia’s press.

Also, Spezia is due for some positive regression defensively since they’ve conceded 23 goals this season off of 16.22 xG so far.

Offensively, Spezia isn’t that great. They're  only averaging 1.17 xG per match, but they’ve looked much better as of late. In their last four games, they’ve created a total of 6.73 xG and really should have beaten Genoa this past Tuesday since they created 2.47 xG in that fixture. 

That said, I think it’s crazy that Fiorentina is all the way up at -185, as I only have them projected at +100 odds. Needless to say, I love Spezia's spread of +1 at +100 odds on DraftKings and would play it up to -134 odds as my top pick.

Pick: Spezia +1 (+100)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Barcelona vs. Alaves

The Barcelona offense is just not what it used to be. Blaugrana did create 2.95 xG against Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday, but only one of their whopping 16 shots was on target. And that was the penalty Memphis Depay had saved in the 71st minute of the contest.

Overall for the season, Barcelona is only averaging 1.78 xG per match, which is a pretty significant dip since last season.

Alaves is going to be fighting against relegation all season long, but they’re 10th in La Liga in both NPxG allowed and big scoring chances allowed. Alaves plays a very defensive style, coming out in either in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 formation. And that has led to a a ton of low-scoring matches. Only one time in their 10 games this season has there been more than three goals scored.

That’s mainly due to the fact the offense is terrible. They’re 17th in NPxG per match, 15th in box entries and 18th in big scoring chances.

Meanwhile, Barcelona has been good defensively in allowing only 0.96 NPxG per match. Plus, Blaugrana is the best pressing team in La Liga by PPDA and pressure success rate, while Alaves is below average against pressure. Also only two of Barcelona’s first 10 domestic fixtures have gone over three goals. 

I only have 2.78 goals projected for this match, so there's value on the total under three goals at +100 on DraftKings in this confrontation.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (+100)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

PSG vs. Lille

Paris Saint-Germain has been really good in Ligue 1, but they’re overvalued in this spot because Lille has been somehow better this season than their title campaign last year. Yet, somehow Les Dogues sit in 10th place in the French top flight.

If you look at Lille on paper, you’ll see 14 goals for and 16 goals against, but they have actually allowed the fewest NPxG in Ligue 1 this season at 8.38, so they’re due for some positive regression. They’re also the top team in big scoring chances allowed. Lille has only conceded seven goals in 11 matches, plus they’re third in box entries allowed and cross completed into their own penalty area.

However, Lille's offense has really improved from last season. So far, they’re averaging 1.66 xG per match, while during their title campaign they only mustered 1.27 xG per game.

PSG’s metrics have been really good. The Parisians are conceding under 1.00 xG per match and averaging 2.24 xG per outing, but they do have some players missing entering this affair.

Achraf Hakimi is suspended after being sent off in the match agains Marseille this past weekend. Sergio Ramos is still out and. most importantly, Marco Veratti is going to miss this match. That's huge because he is far and away PSG's best midfielder. Also, Lille has beaten PSG in their last two meetings. 

I only have PSG projected at -173, so I love Lille +1.5 at -110 on DraftKings to keep this match close.

Pick: Lille +1.5 (-110)