Bundesliga Betting Odds & Picks: How to Bet FC Koln vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf (Sunday, May 24)

FC Koln vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf Odds

Matchweek 27 of the Bundesliga season comes to an end on Sunday afternoon with a battle between FC Koln and Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Koln entered the weekend in 10th place and has all but secured a place in the Bundesliga for next season, while Fortuna Dusseldorf enters the match in a relegation battle. If the season ended today, Dusseldorf would have to play in a relegation playoff match, so they are in dire need of a positive result to avoid falling even further down the table.

FC Koln

Koln have been the definition of average in the Bundesliga this season. They currently have a -0.78 expected goal differential for the season.

Expected goals is an advanced statistic gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Koln have the eighth-best home record in the Bundesliga this season, nabbing 20 points in 13 games including a 5-1-1 stretch with a +6.29 expected goals differential in their last seven matches at RheinEnergieStadion.

Last week, Koln held a two-goal lead at the break before Mainz turned that game on its head leveling the match with two goals in a span of 11 minutes in the second half.

That was an uncharacteristic collapse by Koln as they typically are a very strong side with a lead. So far this campaign, Koln has spent 613 minutes with a lead and have an expected goal differential of +8.58 during that span.

Fortuna Dusseldorf

In their second season since promotion to the Bundesliga, Die Flingeraner have struggled to find their footing. Fortuna Dusseldorf currently have an expected goal differential of -24.91 and have only scored 27 goals, which is lowest in the Bundesliga. Avoiding relegation seems like a tall ask with numbers like those.

Fortuna Dusseldorf drew, 0-0, with fellow relegation foe Paderborn is a snooze-fest last weekend. There were only 17 total shots in the game and each team only registered 1 shot on target. Fortuna Dusseldorf will have to drastically improve their performance if the want to get a result against the Billy Goats.

Previous Meeting 

Fortuna Dusseldorf won the previous meeting back in November, 2-0. Only 17 shots were registered in the game, but Dusseldorf were the better team based on the expected goals report. Koln were in the middle of a dreadful run of form before this game and it showed on the pitch. Koln's form has been much better the second half of the season, so I think the Billy Goats will fare much better this time around.

Analysis

Koln is currently a -136 favorite and in my opinion, that line is too low.

Dusseldorf really struggles inside the 18-yard box, allowing 1.25 xG inside the penalty area per game, which is second worst in the Bundesliga. The Billy Goats, on the other hand, score 0.91 xG inside the penalty are per game. That should give Koln a decided advantage in this match.

Based on my model I have the expected goals at:

• Koln: 2.17 xG
• Fortuna Dusseldorf: 0.91 xG

Based on those numbers and given Koln's great recent run of form at home, I am backing the Billy Goats to win.

Bet: Koln -136

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