Premier League Week 4: Fading a Trendy Underdog and Over/Under

Aug 31, 2018 05:43 PM EDT
Credit:

ManCity.com. Pictured: Sergio Aguero attempts a shot during a Premier League match between Manchester City and Newcastle United at Etihad Stadium on January 20, 2018 in Manchester, England.

  • Premier League Week 4 is highlighted by Manchester City-Newcastle on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC) and Watford-Tottenham on Sunday (11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports).
  • Public bettors are heavy on three road favorites this weekend: Arsenal (-178), Tottenham (-155) and Manchester United (-151).
  • After analyzing the betting market for each matchup, there are two value plays to take.

Week 4 of the Premier League season is highlighted by Watford hosting Tottenham on Sunday at 11 a.m. ET.

The clubs enter the match tied atop the league table with flawless 3-0-0 records and nine points apiece.

Last weekend’s Premier League picks were profitable, but could have been much better if not for Harry Maguire’s stoppage-time goal to lift Leicester City over Southampton.



Draws made a slight comeback in Week 3, but are still in the red overall. Here’s a look at how the season results have shaped up so far.

2018-19 Season Trends

This weekend’s matches will be the last before the International Break, and the league will resume Sept. 15.

Using the current betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out two value plays for Saturday’s Premier League matches.

2018-19 Season Record: 5-9-1 (-1.15 units)

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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