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Premier League Week 4: Fading a Trendy Underdog and Over/Under

Credit:

ManCity.com. Pictured: Sergio Aguero attempts a shot during a Premier League match between Manchester City and Newcastle United at Etihad Stadium on January 20, 2018 in Manchester, England.

  • Premier League Week 4 is highlighted by Manchester City-Newcastle on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC) and Watford-Tottenham on Sunday (11 a.m. ET, NBC Sports).
  • Public bettors are heavy on three road favorites this weekend: Arsenal (-178), Tottenham (-155) and Manchester United (-151).
  • After analyzing the betting market for each matchup, there are two value plays to take.

Week 4 of the Premier League season is highlighted by Watford hosting Tottenham on Sunday at 11 a.m. ET.

The clubs enter the match tied atop the league table with flawless 3-0-0 records and nine points apiece.

Last weekend’s Premier League picks were profitable, but could have been much better if not for Harry Maguire’s stoppage-time goal to lift Leicester City over Southampton.



Draws made a slight comeback in Week 3, but are still in the red overall. Here’s a look at how the season results have shaped up so far.

2018-19 Season Trends

This weekend’s matches will be the last before the International Break, and the league will resume Sept. 15.

Using the current betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out two value plays for Saturday’s Premier League matches.

2018-19 Season Record: 5-9-1 (-1.15 units)


Fulham at Brighton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

  • Fulham Odds: +251
  • Brighton Odds: +125
  • Draw Odds: +244
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (u-110)

Fulham have been a trendy road underdog all week long, but public bettors are overlooking what Brighton has accomplished in the last two matches.

A win over Manchester United and a tight loss to Liverpool should have the Seagulls feeling good at home against an easier opponent.

Fulham have conceded seven goals and a plethora of other scoring chances against mediocre teams, which won’t bode well on the road. However, their offensive prowess makes them enticing for public bettors, and they’ve received nearly 50% of moneyline tickets.

Despite the heavy support for Fulham, oddsmakers aren’t concerned and haven’t adjusted the odds. If Fulham couldn’t keep Burnley and Crystal Palace from scoring multiple goals on their own turf, I don’t trust them to stifle Brighton away from home.

At +125, I like the value on the home side to pick up all three points with a 2-1 victory.

The Bet: Brighton (+125)



Newcastle at Manchester City (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)

  • Newcastle Odds: +2660
  • Man City Odds: -830
  • Draw Odds: +970
  • Over/Under: 3.5 (o+100)

Manchester City will be itching to get back into action after a disappointing 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton last weekend. A home match against lowly Newcastle will be exactly what they need.

I haven’t seen many positives from Newcastle this season, and their matches have been ugly to watch. This game has a real good chance of being a blowout, and I don’t see anything but a multi-goal win for City.

I’m tempted to take the first half over 1.5 as well, but really think it’ll be the second half where Newcastle crumble.

Surprisingly, public bettors have been taking under 3.5 goals with more than 70% of over/under tickets. It’s rare to see such heavy support for an under, especially when it involves a high-powered club such as Manchester City.

I will gladly go contrarian on over 3.5, especially with the juice now at even money.

The Bet: Over 3.5 (+100)


Biggest Line Moves


Most Lopsided Betting %


Value Plays

  • Brighton (+125) vs. Fulham
  • Man City-Newcastle Over 3.5 (+100)

 

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