Crystal Palace (0-0-2) and Aston Villa (0-1-1) will face off today at 2:00 p.m. EDT at Villa Park in Birmingham, England.
Aston Villa is favored at a -118 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-107o / -117u) goals.
Let's get into my Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Pick: Aston Villa -0.5
My Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa best bet is on the Villans to cover the spread.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -110 | 2.5 -107o / -117u | +330 |
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -130 | 2.5 -107o / -117u | -118 |
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Aston Villa -0.5
Leg 2: Match — Over 23.5 Shots
Aston Villa were fortunate to take a point from their last home game. They had just three attempts in their 0-0 draw with Newcastle at Villa Park. However, the data suggests that their attacking output will improve here, so we are picking over 23.5 shots in the match as part of our Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace predictions.
Since the start of last season, the Villains’ home matches in the Premier League have seen an average of 25.25 shots. They have lost some of their attacking talent over the summer thanks to expiring loan deals. However, the 17 shots they managed in their last away game against Brentford indicate they should make a healthy contribution to the overall shot total here.
Crystal Palace’s only away game of the season so far against Chelsea saw 30 attempts. Oliver Glasner’s team showed plenty of attacking intent despite being the underdogs. They should look to take the game to Villa in a similar manner. Since the start of last season, the Eagles’ away matches have seen 26.4 shots on average.
These teams met on four occasions last season. There were 24 shots or more in all of those matches, with an average of 27.25, well above the line set by the bookmakers here.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 25.2% | 21.3% | 53.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Crystal Palace | Total Goals | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.11 | 2.86 | 1.75 |
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Betting Analysis
Crystal Palace’s European exploits on Thursday evening provide a notable obstacle in terms of fitness and preparation. With Unai Emery’s Aston Villa able to rest and focus on Crystal Palace all week, it’s understandable why many bettors might opt for the home victory.
Our in-house data projection model, BETSiE, agrees. In fact, it predicts that Aston Villa will register 1.75xG on Sunday, whilst Crystal Palace is set to accumulate 1.11xG.
Despite Aston Villa being unable to score a Premier League goal from two games this season, they were one of the league’s best at home in 2024/25. Villa lost only one game at Villa Park from 19 outings. Only eventual champions Liverpool, with one defeat, could match Emery’s Villa side for the fewest defeats at home last term.
With 11 victories in 19 matches, Villa became the third most profitable home team to bet on in the 1X2 market in 2024/25. Their +11.2% return on investment (ROI) was surpassed only by Newcastle and Bournemouth.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Projected Starting Lineups
Crystal Palace
Henderson; Lacroix, Guehi, Richards; Munoz, Hughes, Wharton, Mitchell; Devenny, Sarr, Mateta.
Aston Villa
Martinez; Cash, Konso, Mings, Maatsen; Onana, Tielemans, Rogers; Malen, McGinn, Watkins.
