Premier League Week 3 Betting: Draws Will Make a Comeback

Aug 24, 2018 04:11 PM EDT

Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea’s N’Golo Kante dribbling past Newcastle players

  • There are nine Premier League matches on the board for Saturday and Sunday, starting with Manchester City vs. Wolves at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports.
  • Although there have only been three draws so far this season, look for that trend to shift in Week 3.
  • I've picked out four value plays after analyzing the betting market for each matchup.

Entering Week 3 of the Premier League season, Manchester City and Liverpool have shown that they’re the cream of the crop.

The defending champions are out to -175 to lift the trophy once again, while Jurgen Klopp’s men are next at +305. No other team has odds better than +1200 to win the title.

Chelsea and Tottenham are off to solid starts, both taking the maximum of six points, while Arsenal (0 points) and Manchester United (3 points) have struggled. The Gunners at least have a favorable matchup vs. West Ham this weekend while the Red Devils have to face Spurs.

Here’s a look at how results have shaped up so far.

2018-19 Season Trends

Draws have struggled out of the gate this season, cashing in just 3 of 20 matches thus far. Home teams have been slightly profitable, led by Brighton’s upset over Manchester United, while road teams are in the red. I believe we’ll see some different trends in Week 3.

Using the current betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out four value plays for Saturday and Sunday’s Premier League matches.

2018-19 Season Record: 3-7-1 (-2.1 units)

Cardiff City at Huddersfield (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

  • Cardiff City Odds: +257
  • Huddersfield Odds: +141
  • Draw Odds: +204
  • Over/Under: 2 (u-113)

It’s been a predictable struggle for the two most-poised clubs for relegation, but at least one of them will get points on Saturday. Cardiff City are currently priced at -200 to be demoted while Huddersfield are right behind them at -150 (odds via 5Dimes).

I’m not forecasting either team to win, but public bettors are siding with Huddersfield (60% of tickets) to take all the points.



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