Premier League Week 3 Betting: Draws Will Make a Comeback

Premier League Week 3 Betting: Draws Will Make a Comeback article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea’s N’Golo Kante dribbling past Newcastle players

  • There are nine Premier League matches on the board for Saturday and Sunday, starting with Manchester City vs. Wolves at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports.
  • Although there have only been three draws so far this season, look for that trend to shift in Week 3.
  • I've picked out four value plays after analyzing the betting market for each matchup.

Entering Week 3 of the Premier League season, Manchester City and Liverpool have shown that they’re the cream of the crop.

The defending champions are out to -175 to lift the trophy once again, while Jurgen Klopp’s men are next at +305. No other team has odds better than +1200 to win the title.

Chelsea and Tottenham are off to solid starts, both taking the maximum of six points, while Arsenal (0 points) and Manchester United (3 points) have struggled. The Gunners at least have a favorable matchup vs. West Ham this weekend while the Red Devils have to face Spurs.

Here’s a look at how results have shaped up so far.

2018-19 Season Trends

Draws have struggled out of the gate this season, cashing in just 3 of 20 matches thus far. Home teams have been slightly profitable, led by Brighton’s upset over Manchester United, while road teams are in the red. I believe we’ll see some different trends in Week 3.

Using the current betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out four value plays for Saturday and Sunday’s Premier League matches.

2018-19 Season Record: 3-7-1 (-2.1 units)

Cardiff City at Huddersfield (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

  • Cardiff City Odds: +257
  • Huddersfield Odds: +141
  • Draw Odds: +204
  • Over/Under: 2 (u-113)

It’s been a predictable struggle for the two most-poised clubs for relegation, but at least one of them will get points on Saturday. Cardiff City are currently priced at -200 to be demoted while Huddersfield are right behind them at -150 (odds via 5Dimes).

I’m not forecasting either team to win, but public bettors are siding with Huddersfield (60% of tickets) to take all the points.

As if the over/under wasn’t low enough at 2 goals, juice keeps shifting toward the under. Sportsbooks and bettors alike just don’t see anything beyond a 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1 result. Once again, this match perfectly fits the mold of taking draws with low totals and tight moneylines.

Neither club can afford an outright loss in this match and I’m following the money on both teams to share the points.

The Bet: Draw (+204)

Leicester City at Southampton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

  • Leicester City Odds: +222
  • Southampton Odds: +142
  • Draw Odds: +236
  • Over/Under: 2 (o-140)

Leicester City have looked the better of these sides through the opening two weeks, but striker Jamie Vardy will miss out on Saturday’s match due to a straight red card received against Wolves. His suspension caused instant reaction around the betting market.

Very early wagers came in on Leicester City, but odds shot up from +180 to +220 immediately following the red card to Vardy.

Perhaps it was a bit of an overreaction, but it shows how much a top goalscorer can influence the line, especially for a challenging road match. Their game against Wolves hadn’t even gone final before the moneyline for this weekend moved 40 cents.

Both Southampton and Leicester City have received roughly 40% of public bets while the draw’s been largely ignored. Odds have shifted in both teams’ favor since opening, but are essentially back to the original prices.

With tight three-way moneylines, a low total of 2 goals and no Vardy, I’ll gladly take the draw at +236 odds, as I think that’s the most likely result.

The Bet: Draw (+236)

Crystal Palace at Watford (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET)

  • Crystal Palace Odds: +191
  • Watford Odds: +165
  • Draw Odds: +232
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (u-140)

Sharp money hit Crystal Palace this week, moving the moneyline from +210 to +191. The Eagles fought a tough battle against Liverpool on Monday despite losing 2-0, and they’re responsible for one of this week’s biggest shift in odds.

Public bettors haven’t exactly been on board, and it’s the home side Watford getting nearly 50% of moneyline tickets. They’ve already earned two wins this season and casual bettors have flocked to the plus-money odds again.

This has the potential to be one of the more exciting matches of the weekend, and both teams have a great shot at taking all three points.

However, the payout of +232 on the draw is too valuable to pass up, and the line will likely come down before game time.

The Bet: Draw +232

Chelsea at Newcastle (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET)

  • Chelsea Odds: -145
  • Newcastle Odds: +450
  • Draw Odds: +295
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (o-110)

Chelsea picked up another victory against Arsenal last weekend, 3-2, but they were shaky defensively and could have conceded far more goals.

Newcastle played to a 0-0 draw at Cardiff City but had a chance to win it on a penalty kick in the dying seconds. Overall, the match was a mess.

This weekend the home side should feel confident that they can score against Chelsea, especially at home, and this match fits an over/under system with a 20% ROI historically. Combining a big home underdog with a low total has been a winning formula for goals, so take the over. This simple system is already off to a 3-0 start in 2018-19.

The Bet: Over 2.5 (-110)

Most Lopsided Betting %’s

  • 85% on Arsenal (-270) vs. West Ham United
  • 83% on Chelsea (-145) at Newcastle
  • 81% on Fulham (-105) vs. Burnley

Value Plays

  • Cardiff City-Huddersfield Draw (+204)
  • Leicester City-Southampton Draw (+236)
  • Watford-Crystal Palace Draw (+232)
  • Newcastle-Chelsea Over 2.5 (-110)

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