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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Wolves Betting Preview (Nov. 27)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Wolves Betting Preview (Nov. 27) article feature image
Credit:

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolves star Raúl Jiménez, center, is swarmed by his teammates after scoring a goal.

Norwich City vs. Wolves Odds

Norwich City Odds +250
Wolves Odds +115
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+135 / -160)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Norwich City goes for its third consecutive victory Saturday when it hosts Wolves at Carrow Road in a Premier League showdown.

Surprisingly, the Canaries are on a two-match winning streak after picking up only two points from their previous 10 contests. It will also mark manager Dean Smith’s second match in charge, but this will be a big test for his side, which is still one of the worst EPL teams despite its recent performances.

On the other side, Wolves got a deserved home win over West Ham United last weekend and moved into sixth place in the table. Wolverhampton has been one of the league’s more underrated teams, improving greatly under new manager Bruno Lage. However, they need three points on the road against this relegation side to contend for a top-six spot this season.

Is Streaking Norwich City Better? Not So Much

I know Norwich City has won back-to-back games against Brentford and Southampton, but this team is still so bad. In those two matches, the Canaries lost the expected-goals battle by a combined 3.4-1.9 margin and is still one of the worst defensive teams in the English top flight.

Norwich is still in the bottom three in shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances conceded, box entries and NPxG, where they’re allowing 1.78 per match, per fbref.com.

Obviously, Smith was able to turn around the Aston Villa squad that was one of the worst defensive teams in the league before the pandemic, but the point is that it took time and it’s going to take him some more patience to get Norwich to level of being a respectable EPL defense.

Surging Wolves Sneaky Good This Season 

Offensively, Wolves haven’t really put up eye popping numbers, ranking 10th in NPxG, but they’re still averaging 1.38 xG per match. And that’s a big improvement from last season when Wolves averaged only 1.02 xG per outing under former manager Nuno Espírito Santo.

An incredible finish from @Raul_Jimenez9 steals the show!

🙌🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/5rxmQ3iZrK

— Wolves (@Wolves) November 20, 2021

I don’t how Norwich is going to stop a Wolves offense that’s really deadly in transition, as well as good versus pressure and creating big scoring chances since they already have 19 this season.

Wolverhampton does have fantastic defensive numbers in the English top flight, including: fourth in shots per 90 allowed; and, third in big scoring chances allowed, and have the second best pressure success rate, per fbref.com

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think this line is an overreaction to Norwich City winning two games in a row. I have Wolves projected at -109, so I think there’s some value on them at +115 odds via DraftKings and will make them my top selection.

Pick: Wolves ML (+115)

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