West Ham vs. Wolverhampton Pick: Premier League Betting Odds, Prediction (Saturday, June 20)

West Ham vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers Odds & Pick

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Wolverhampton Wanderers head to bottom-feeder West Ham in a game that has huge implications at both ends of the table. West Ham is currently deep in a relegation battle, only sitting two points above Bournemouth for the last relegation spot. On the other side of the table, Wolves currently sit in seventh place, just two points behind Manchester United for fifth and a spot in the Europa League.

West Ham

The Hammers deserve to be on the verge of relegation are based on expected points (27 actual vs. 25.19 xPoints). The main issue for the Hammers this season has been defense. West Ham allow a whopping 2.05 expected goals per game, second-most in the Premier League. Things don't get much better at home either, as they are conceding 1.82 xG per game and have a -5.61 expected goal differential.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

West Ham put a lot of focus on offense this transfer window bringing in Sebastian Haller (via Frankfurt), Pablo Fornales (via Villarreal), and Jarrod Bowen (via Hull City in January) for a combined $98,230,000. However, spending that amount of cash hasn't translated to much offensive firepower: The Hammers only manage 1.24 xG per game (15th in the Premier League). The big-money transfers will have to show some improvement if West Ham are going to survive relegation.

Wolves

After a seventh-place finish last year, Wolves find themselves in the exact same position this season. Over the past two seasons, Wolves have been a surprise to many, but this team is absolutely for real. Wolves are top five in the Premier League in expected points, expected goal differential, and expected goals allowed. In fact, Wolves were one of the hottest teams in the Premier League before the break, based on expected goals.

In their last eight matches, they have scored 2.06 xG per game, while only conceding 0.94 expected goals per game. Within those eight games, Wolves won the expected goals battle in matches with Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool, showing they can hang with the big boys.

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Previous Meeting 

Wolves thoroughly dominated the reverse fixture 2-0 back in December. It was a dominate performance defensively, as Wolves limited West Ham to just six shots and 0.60 expected goals and deserved the 2-0 win based on the expected goals report.

Betting Pick

I think Wolves' current line at BetMGM is way too short based on my model, which has the following projections for this matchup:

• West Ham projected odds:  +504 (16.55% win probability)
• Wolves projected odds: -171 (63.09% win probability)
• Draw projected odds: +391 (20.36% win probability)
• West Ham projected xG: 1.01
• Wolves projected xG: 2.09

Based on those numbers I think there is a lot of value on Wolves to grab all three points on the road.

Pick: Wolves +110

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