Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Newcastle United (Sunday, Oct. 25)
Harriet Lander/Copa/Getty Images. Pictured: Wolverhampton Wanders standout Raul Jimenez.
- Wolves host Newcastle on Sunday in the Premier League coming off back-to-back 1-0 wins.
- The Magpies have not improved much this season despite impressive preseason signings.
- Dillon Essma explains how you should bet on Wolves in this fixture.
Wolves vs. Newcastle Odds
|Wolves Odds||-139 [BET NOW]|
|Newcastle Odds||+440 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+240 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+128/-159) [BET NOW]|
|Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
Newcastle United travels to the Molineux Stadium on Sunday to take on Wolverhampton Wanderers. The Magpies will look to bounce back after their defeat against Manchester United, while Wolves look to build upon its close victory over Leeds United in its most recent outing.
Newcastle are coming off a pretty average season that saw it finish in 13th place on the table. Most in the analytical world are down on manager Steve Bruce and the Magpies.
They did finish in the bottom half of the table, but underlying statistics say that was very flattering for them. Bruce’s side generated the second-lowest xG (0.96 per game) tally in the EPL last season and allowed the fourth-most xGA (1.76 per game).
If we are going by advanced data, Newcastle should have been relegated.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
With that said, I was a bit more optimistic about the Magpies due to some of the transfers that arrived before this season. I thought they could create more chances, with the addition of a proven goalscorer in Callum Wilson. Thus far, I have been disappointed.
According to advanced metrics, Newcastle has been a below-average side through its first five games. The Magpies’ xG (1.19 per game) and xGA totals (1.72 pergame) are both in the bottom third of the Premier League. I really don’t think the quality of the players is the problem at this point. They have enough talent for those numbers to be closer to mid-table.
And yet, we see more of the same story this season, as was the case in the 2019-20 campaign, and I am going to pin this on the manager. Bruce is not getting enough out of them, and Newcastle’s brand of soccer is pretty rigid. Against Wolves at the Molineux, I am expecting Newcastle to frustrate the host and play for a low-scoring draw.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are one of the sides looking to break into the Top 6 of the league and appear to be among that group to stay there. Since returning to England’s top flight in 2018, Wolves have usually started slowly and this year is no different.
A 3-0-2 mark might seem like a good start, but it has been a bit of a struggle to watch.
Wolves have created few chances at 0.85 xG per game, scoring just five goals in five games. Traditionally, the club likes to play physical defense, keep clean sheets and take all three points in the last 15 minutes of a match.
Departures (Wolves sold Diogo Jota to Liverpool and Matt Doherty to Tottenham) could be having an impact on these early performances. The new signings, including right back Nelson Semedo from Barcelona, seem to be high-quality additions, who may just need some time to gel and develop more of a chemistry with the rest of the squad.
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Defensively, Wolves’ xGA data is not promising either, as it’s allowing 1.63 per game. The 3-1 loss to Manchester City was a bit harsh on its performance, although the outing against West Ham United was a rough one for it, resulting in a 4-0 defeat. Take those two games out, though, and Wolves’ xGA looks far less bleak.
Wolves’ last two games have been better, having kept clean sheets and taking three points against Fulham and Leeds United. Performances like that might be necessary for Wolves to win games until the squad can get into a groove.
Luckily, blanking Newcastle is doable at this point. Offensively, Wolves is very dependent on striker Raul Jimenez and winger Adama Traoré. I would expect manager Nuno Espirito Santo to tactically limit Newcastle’s chances, then likely take the game to the opposition in the final 30 minutes.
Wolves and the under are the plays here. However, Wolves come on strong in the second half, more specifically the last 20 to 30 minutes. The club tends to feel out its opponents and Nuno will make tactical subs to get the three points. I would bet under the alternative total of 2.25 at -122 pregame.
However, I would look to bet Wolves’ moneyline live. I think -139 is fine, but it is pretty rare for it to score early. You will likely get closer to even money if you wait for a better number live, assuming there is no early goal from Spirito Santo’s men.
Picks: Wolves ML up to -145 (try to bet live) | Under 2.25 at -122