Premier League Odds, Betting Pick, Prediction (Tuesday, June 23): Tottenham vs. West Ham

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

For the first time since Jose Mourinho became manager at Tottenham in November, Spurs will have all six of their best attacking players available on Tuesday afternoon as London rivals West Ham United visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Harry Kane didn’t look close to fit and wasn’t effective in Friday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United, but he’s available. Dele Alli is back from suspension to join Lucas Moura, Steven Bergwijn, Heung-min Son and Erik Lamela as Mourinho will have plenty of options to both set his starting XI and use his five subs to alter the game.

Mourinho will also have the opportunity to bring both new signings Gio Lo Celso and Tanguy Ndombele off the bench in the second half, who would instantly become Spurs most creative midfield players. If Spurs had no problem controlling the midfield with Harry Winks and Eric Dier in the midfield when they beat West Ham convincingly in November, then I have no concerns about Spurs’ better midfielders (Moussa Sissoko included) to control this game.

West Ham’s road form has been brutal this year, as the Hammers have conceded twice as many goals as they have scored and averaged less than one goal per game. Spurs have their defensive issues, but WHU hasn't shown an ability to generate anything in attack on the road, especially since striker Sébastien Haller and creative midfielder Robert Snodgrass are out for this match. Only Aston Villa has a worse expected goal difference away from home in the Premier League in 2019-20.

By expected points metrics, despite an improvement in performances before the layoff for David Moyes' side, the Hammers rank 19th in expected points. Spurs’ biggest issue this year has been a lack of game control, allowing way too many shots from the opponent, but West Ham aren’t the team to take advantage of that. The Hammers’ rank 18th in shots per game, and that’s including Haller, their most active shot taker.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Without Haller, who has seven goals, it’s not clear where the goals will come from. WHU generated 0.44 xG against Wolves in a 2-0 defeat Saturday, and the Hammers’ front four that started Saturday has produced six combined goals this year.

When these two teams met in November, Spurs were -145 on the moneyline, despite having a worse midfield available and being on the road. I understand why the market is low on Tottenham because of their underlying xG numbers, but they are too cheap here, just -140 at home. Tottenham, despite its deficiencies as a squad, should have no issues dispatching WHU in this London derby.

In a battle of two overrated sides, I’ll take the one at full strength.

PICK: Tottenham (-140)

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