The 2018 Premier League starts Friday with Manchester United hosting Leicester City. The Action Network’s soccer team has previewed every club from the recently promoted Cardiff City to league favorites Manchester City.
After reading each preview, I wanted in on the action. But I’m not a soccer expert, so I dove into the Bet Labs’ database to find a winning system. My research unearthed a profitable over/under strategy with two matches for Saturday.
What has been more profitable to bet, overs or unders in the Premier League? Neither, but since 2012 unders have buried bettors.
There is an edge, sort of, betting overs. It quickly become profitable if we look at low-total games. This is a strategy that works across many sports. The fewer runs, points or goals the teams have to score, the easier it is for the over to hit. In low-total games (2.5 or fewer goals) the over has gone 668-624-100, +12.98 units since 2012.
This is still not a system worth betting until we look at which team is favored. In a low-total game, if the home side is an underdog the over improves to 242-178-25 (58%). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,008 betting matches since 2012.
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Why is this a profitable strategy? After speaking with The Action Network’s soccer expert Dan McGuire, one theory is home underdogs believe they can go for the win because they have an edge playing in front of their fans. This can result in more open play, which promotes scoring. Conversely, a road underdog is likely to play for a draw, which will lead to more defensive play and a conservative style that can limit scoring opportunities.
This system has a large sample size and consistent results (profitable every season since 2012). If you buy the theory behind this strategy then you can feel confident placing wagers when games match.
- Newcastle vs. Tottenham (7:30 a.m. ET): Newcastle opened +351 underdogs at home, total 2.5.
- Huddersfield Town vs. Chelsea (10 a.m. ET): Huddersfield opened as +647 underdogs at home, total 2.5.
This system has performed even better when the home team is a sizeable underdog (+350 or greater). In this scenario the over is 93-59-4 (61%), +28.96 units.