Soccer publication France Football published today the 30 candidates for the 2025 award, given to the best male soccer player for the 2024-25 season.
While we won't know who it'll take the historic award until the Paris ceremony in September, it's never too soon to start taking a look at who the favorites are, using Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
Who's leading the Ballon d'Or Odds?
The recent announcement made it official, but for a couple of months now, experts have had one name circled up as the leading candidate to take it: Paris Saint-Germain's Ousmane Dembele.
The 28-year-old winger has come a long way from his injury-ridden, disappointing spells at FC Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund, turning into a force under Spanish manager Luis Enrique.
Dembele didn't miss a single step in taking over from fellow Frenchman Kylian Mbappe as the striker left for Real Madrid. Instead, made PSG his team, racking up 35 goals and 16 assists in 53, helping the Parisian outfit to a historic league, cup and Champions League treble.
It wasn't all stat padding either; the Frenchman showed up in the big moments, scoring two and assisting two across three games in the semi-finals and final in the Champions League. He racked up nearly a goal or assist every game in Europe, with 14 goal involvements in 15 games.
He's the overwhelming favorite, and that shows, with 85% of Implied Probability to win, or around -567 odds. But he's not alone.
Since the nominees' announcement, two players who are also coming off a top 2024-25 are on the up, namely FC Barcelona's wonderkid Lamine Yamal and Liverpool's top star, Mohammed Salah.
The 18-year-old Yamal has broken a myriad of records since breaking through, becoming the youngest player to debut for Barcelona, score in La Liga, and score in a Clásico. He proved instrumental in Hansi Flick's Barcelona team that took a league and cup double this season, finishing with 18 goals and 25 assists in 55 games across all competitions.
Still, a surprise elimination to Inter Milan in the Champions League semifinals and a loss to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League final have limited his chances to break Ronaldo Nazario's record of the youngest ever winner at 21 years and 95 days old.
Salah was another player on fire during the last season, as Liverpool's Egyptian star became the first player ever to reach double-figure goals and assists before December 25 in a Premier League season. He went on to rack up an incredible 32 goals and 23 assists in 52 games last season, leading Liverpool to a record-tying 20th league title. Still, like Yamal, his chances are hurt by poor luck in the Champions League, where the Reds were ousted by eventual winners PSG.
| Player | Odds | Implied Prob. |
| Ousmane Dembele (PSG) | -567 | 85% |
| Lamine Yamal (FC Barcelona) | +567 | 15% |
| Mohamed Salah (Liverpool FC) | +1150 | 8% |
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
