Soccer publication France Football will announce today the winner of the Ballon d'Or, the traditional award for the best male soccer player of the 2024-25 season.
The ceremony in Paris kicks off at 9:00 p.m. local time (3:00 p.m. ET), with a gala handing out eleven awards that turn the French capital into the media hub of world soccer.
While there’s interest in who will win in the youth, goalkeeper, coach, or women’s categories, the main spotlight remains on the best male player of the past year.
For those looking to wager on the Ballon d'Or ceremony, one operator makes it possible to put real money on the event in all 50 states. That’s Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
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2025 Ballon d'Or Odds, Favorites
Although 30 candidates were announced back in August, the race seems to have boiled down to two: Ousmane Dembele and Lamine Yamal. The Frenchman leads the way with an 82% chance, followed by the Spaniard at 14% on Kalshi.
The 28-year-old Paris Saint-Germain winger has come a long way from his injury-riddled, disappointing spells at FC Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund, turning into a force under Spanish manager Luis Enrique.
Dembele didn’t miss a beat in taking over from fellow Frenchman Kylian Mbappe after the striker left for Real Madrid. Instead, he made PSG his team, racking up 35 goals and 16 assists in 53 games, leading the Parisian club to a historic league, cup, and Champions League treble.
It wasn’t all stat-padding either; the Frenchman delivered in the biggest moments, scoring twice and assisting twice across the Champions League semifinals and final. He averaged nearly a goal involvement per match in Europe, finishing with 14 goals or assists in 15 games.
Meanwhile, 18-year-old Yamal has shattered a myriad of records since breaking through, becoming the youngest player to debut for Barcelona, score in La Liga, and score in a Clásico. He proved instrumental in Hansi Flick’s Barcelona side that secured a league and cup double last season, finishing with 18 goals and 25 assists in 55 appearances across all competitions.
Still, a shock elimination to Inter Milan in the Champions League semifinals and a loss to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League final limited his chances to surpass Ronaldo Nazario’s record as the youngest-ever winner at 21 years and 95 days old.
At first, Egyptian star Mohamed Salah was considered the third-strongest contender after being on fire last season, but now another name has emerged: Raphinha. The Brazilian winger is coming off a standout year at Barcelona and has become one of the national team’s biggest weapons during Neymar’s long injury absence.
The former Leeds player holds a 4% chance on Kalshi and will look to pull off the upset. But overcoming Dembélé and his Barcelona teammate Yamal would be a massive surprise for the soccer world.
| Player | Odds | Implied Prob. |
| Ousmane Dembele (PSG) | -487 | 82% |
| Lamine Yamal (FC Barcelona) | +614 | 14% |
| Raphinha (FC Barcelona) | +1328 | 7% |
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