Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fiorentina vs. Torino Preview (July 19)

Credit:

Maurizio Lagana/Getty Images. Pictured: Federico Chiesa of Fiorentina.

  • Updated odds list Fiorentina as a favorite over Torino, but Brad Cunningham's model makes Viola an even bigger favorite.
  • As a result, he's happy to take Fiorentina at -103 and isn't buying into Torino's win in their previous meeting in December, as Viola dominated the match but couldn't convert.
  • See his full analysis and preview below.

Fiorentina vs. Torino Odds

Fiorentia odds -103 [BET NOW]
Torino odds +310 [BET NOW]
Draw +230 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-125/+102) [BET NOW]
Time Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A bottom half of the Serie A table clash takes place Sunday on ESPN between Fiorentina and Torino. Both teams come into the match after huge wins during the week, and both have all but secured another season in Serie A, so a win on either side would almost mathematically guarantee it.

Fiorentina

The Viola’s looked impressive on Wednesday, beating up on relegation side Lecce on the road. Fiorentina bagged three goals in the first half and  went on cruise control in the second half to win 3-1.

It’s been a really disappointing season for Fiorentina, who at this point in the season have their lowest point total in over a decade. However, the Viola’s have been really unlucky this season. Based on expected points, they should be four spots higher in the table and should have 8.67 more points to their name, based on Understat’s xPoints metric.

Since the restart, Fiorentina hasn’t had many positive results, but their underlying metrics show they’ve been playing well. In their last eight matches, the Viola’s have won the expected goals battle 10.79 to 7.81. They’ve been playing some stellar defense in those matches as well, only allowing 0.97 xG per match.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Fiorentina saw some of that positive regression in their last match, but is due for some more to end the season. 

Torino

With the win against Genoa on Thursday, Il Toro has pulled themselves out of the relegation battle and all but secured another season in Serie A. Torino will now look to end one of the worst runs on the road in the clubs history on Sunday.

Life on the road has not been too kind. They’re mustering only 1.19 xGF per match, while allowing 1.84 xG per match. It’s been really bad for Il Toro on road in 2020, as their only points on the road this calendar year came in a 3-0 win at Roma on Jan. 5. Since then, they’ve lost seven straight matches and have been outscored 20-to-6.

I don’t see Il Toro breaking that road losing streak on Sunday against Fiorentina.

Previous Meeting

Torino won the reverse fixture 2-1 at home back in December. However, Fiorentina was the better side in the match, outshooting Torino 17-10 and winning the expected goals battle 2.24 to 0.79.

In fact Torino only created one chance over 0.15 xG, while Fiorentina had four such chances. I expect Fiorentina to put away those chances this time around.

Analysis

Based on my model, I think the home side is severely undervalued in this match:

  • Fiorentina projected odds: -146 (59.37% win probability)
  • Torino projected odds: +515 (16.25%)
  • Draw projected odds: +310 (24.38%)
  • Fiorentina projected xG: 1.65
  • Torino projected xG: 0.82

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Fiorentina to grab all three points in this match.

Pick: Fiorentina -103

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