France and Spain will face off today at 3:00 p.m. ET at MHP Arena in Stuttgart, Germany.
Spain is favored at a +140 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (+110/-138) goals.
Let's get into my France vs. Spain prediction.
France vs. Spain Prediction
My best France vs. Spain best bet is the Spain moneyline.
France vs. Spain Odds
| France Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Draw | Total Goals | Moneyline |
+210 | 2.5 +110/-138 | +220 |
| Spain Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Draw | Total Goals | Moneyline |
+210 | 2.5 +110/-138 | +140 |
France vs. Spain Pick
Pick: Spain Moneyline
France hasn't had a particularly impressive lead-up to the Final 4. As many as seven players from Champions League finalists PSG and Inter will only arrive at the national team camp on Monday evening. Real Madrid stars Aurelien Tchouameni and Kylian Mbappé will also arrive on Monday.
Spain, on the other hand, is less affected by club fixtures. Fabian Ruiz was the only La Roja star involved in the Champions League Final.
This is a team that hasn't lost a significant match since their 0-2 defeat to Scotland in March 2023. The French players have significantly more playing minutes over the season compared to the Spanish players, suggesting that Spain has a good chance to repeat their success from the Euro semifinals in the summer by defeating France once again.
The UCL Final hangover, combined with Spain’s recent dominance, makes them the value pick here.
France vs. Spain Betting Analysis, Notes
- Spain (56) are second only to Sweden (60) for attempts on target in the competition. They average 2.11 xG per game, having played two more matches than the Swede (2.58 xG per game).
- France have the joint-best defense (8 goals conceded), alongside Serbia, Portugal and Germany in Nations League A. Only Denmark (4) have kept more clean sheets than Les Bleus (3), who have an average of only 1.05 xGA per match in the group phase.
The average odds for a Spanish victory (2.65) are the lowest in the past three meetings, since March 2017. La Roja won two of the matches, including the Euro 2024 semifinal, but lost the Nations League final (2-1) in October 2021.
Spain beat France 2-1 in the most recent meeting between the sides, which was at last summer’s European Championships. However, Les Bleus recorded a 2-1 win over La Roja when the teams met in the final of the Nations League back in 2021.
Kylian Mbappe has scored 48 goals for France, meaning he is just nine goals behind Olivier Giroud, who holds the record for the most goals on the national team. Mbappe has also enjoyed a prolific first season for Real Madrid, netting 31 La Liga goals in 34 matches.
