Barcelona. Pictured: Leo Messi
- After the international break, the European soccer season is back underway with some big matches across the continent.
- Barcelona are big favorites against Real Sociedad, but they have had trouble with La Real in the past.
- Wolfsburg vs. Hertha Berlin figures to be a high-scoring affair in the Bundesliga.
There are some big matches across Europe this weekend and by using stats and historical data, I’ve found some good value in Germany, Spain and Italy — including the match between Barcelona and Real Sociedad.
Betting odds: Wolfsburg vs. Hertha Berlin
- Wolfsburg moneyline: +113
- Hertha Berlin moneyline: +278
- Draw: +213
- Over/Under: 2.25 (+106/-129)
- Kick-off: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
- Channel: Fox Soccer Plus, Fubo TV
While all eyes will be on champions Bayern’s match with Bayer Leverkusen in a repeat of last month’s German Super Cup, the best prices in the Bundesliga betting this weekend can be found elsewhere, starting with an early top-of-the-table clash. Wolfsburg and Hertha Berlin are the only sides other than Bayern to have won each of their first two matches this season, so something has to give this weekend.
It’s a match, however, that the bookies strongly feel will be a low-scoring affair, perhaps in part to the visitors’ back-to-back clean sheets thus far.
However, historically meetings between the two at the Volkswagen Arena have been very entertaining indeed, with the hosts in particular enjoying great success in front of goal.
The Wolves have scored in each of their last nine home games against Hertha, and at least twice in eight of said matches.
All in all, there have been 38 goals across those meetings (more than four per game), meaning there’s a lot of value on the over 2.25 — even more so with both of these sides getting off to a strong start in front of goal thus far.
Bet: Over 2.25 goals +106
Betting odds: Real Sociedad vs. Barcelona
- Barcelona moneyline: -238
- Real Sociedad moneyline: +562
- Draw: +413
- Over/Under: 3.25 (-109/-111)
- Kick-off: Saturday, 10:15 a.m. ET
- Channel: beIN Sports
While Barcelona may have put an end to their Anoeta hoodoo last season in winning in the league for the first time at Real Sociedad in eight attempts, the match wasn’t without a scare for the champions.
Ernesto Valverde’s side has made a strong start to the season but this is without doubt their toughest test to date on paper having faced some favorable opposition, and it’s a game that they won’t, or at least shouldn’t, be taking lightly with the return of the Champions League around the corner.
While they may have lost this fixture last season, the hosts took a two-goal lead and it’s been 11 years since they last failed to score in a home league meeting with the Blaugrana.
Moreover, the home side has opened the scoring in each of the last five in this La Liga fixture, and if Barcelona take their eye off the ball, the timing of this match could still see that run continue.
Bet: Real Sociedad to score first +240
Betting odds: Valencia vs. Real Betis
- Valencia moneyline: +353
- Real Betis moneyline: -135
- Draw: +294
- Over/Under: 2.25 (-113/-107)
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: beIN Sports
In a reverse of the thinking ahead of the aforementioned Wolfsburg game, the odds suggest that Real Betis’ trip to Valencia should be a relatively free-scoring game. Both sides certainly have coaches that like to play on the front foot when they can, ranking fourth and fifth respectively for goals scored last season. But their starts to the current campaign have been somewhat stunted.
Betis picked up their first win of the season in the Seville derby ahead of the international break, but Joaquin’s match-winner is their only goal of the season so far. Valencia have scored a modest three in three by comparison, but are yet to pick up all three points.
Neither side is in good form in front of goal, and Betis have only scored on one of their last six visits to Valencia. Moreover, both teams have scored in just three of their last 11 meetings and in none of Betis’ matches so far this season.
Bet: Both teams NOT to score +110
Betting odds: Schalke vs. Borussia Monchengladbach
- Schalke moneyline: +195
- Monchengladbach moneyline: +143
- Draw: +234
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-109/-111)
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: FOX Sports 2
Having finished second only to Bayern last season, Schalke have a lot to live up to. But it has been a disappointing start to the campaign for Domenico Tedesco’s charges. Back-to-back defeats preceded the international break, and this trip to ‘Gladbach is far from favorable. Factor in the upcoming distraction of a Champions League tie with Porto in midweek and things may get worse before they get better for S04.
Despite that, there’s not much to separate these sides in the odds, which isn’t an accurate reflection of how meetings between the two have tended to pan out at Borussia Park. In fact, the draw in this fixture last season ended a run of four straight home wins for the Foals, who have lost just one of the last 12 as hosts against Schalke and won nine of the last 11 in the league. With four consecutive home wins spanning back to last season, the odds on Dieter Hecking’s side to make that five are very tempting.
Bet: Monchengladbach +143
Betting odds: Bologna vs. Genoa
- Bologna moneyline: +335
- Genoa moneyline: -107
- Draw: +230
- Over/Under: 2.25 (+103/-125)
- Kick-off: Sunday, 9 a.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN+
It’s fair to say that Sunday’s matchup between these two sides isn’t one that most will have their eye on in Italy, and for good reason. Each of the last 10 meetings between the sides have seen under 2.5 goals scored, so the balance of the odds on a repeat don’t really offer much value.
There’s slightly more when betting on at least one of the teams to fail to score — an outcome in nine of said 10 meetings — but it may be worth a bet on Bologna to get some sort of result after an abject start.
Filippo Inzaghi’s renowned clinical finishing certainly hasn’t translated to his side thus far, without a single goal in three matches, but Bologna have had the better of meetings with Genoa in recent years. The odds are stacked in the hosts favor, but over the last nine meetings between these sides Genoa have won just once and scored a miserly two goals. The price on the visitors to grab at least a point is worth considering.
Bet: Bologna +0.5 -111