Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Liverpool vs. Fulham (Sunday, March 7)
Jason Cairnduff – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Ola Aina (left), Josh Maja (center), and Tosin Adarabioyo (right).
Liverpool vs. Fulham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-137 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Liverpool looks to end its longest home losing streak in the history of the club Sunday when it hosts relegation side Fulham.
Liverpool has now lost five straight matches at Anfield after its 1-0 defeat at the hands of Chelsea on Thursday. It’s been a nightmare season for the defending champions, who have dealt with a mountain of injuries. Currently, Virgil Van Djik, Jordan Henderson, Joël Matip, and Joe Gomez are all on the sidelines, so Liverpool has huge holes in the middle of the pitch.
It also has had a lot of trouble finding the back of the net, scoring only four goals in its last six contests.
Fulham is in desperate need of a result after its midweek loss to Tottenham. The Cottagers are currently in the relegation zone and three points from safety. They drew with the Reds, 1-1, in the first meeting, so the Cottagers are capable of finding points against Liverpool.
So, what has gone wrong for the Reds during their recent bad run of form?
Their offense isn’t creating as many chances as it did earlier in the season. Liverpool has created just 1.42 expected goals per match, compared to 2.07 xG in their first 14 matches of the season.
The massive injuries to a lot of its defenders has taken its toll as well, as the Reds have allowed a whopping 10.83 xG in their last six matches.
The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment as well. Usually, Jurgen Klopp plays an all-out high press that gives teams fits.
Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field and causes most opponents to spend less time on the ball since they are forced to make quick passes.
With Liverpool’s top three center backs out for the rest of the season, it’s had to back off its high press so its fill-in defenders aren’t exposed.
Former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger gives a perfect explanation of the dilemma Liverpool is going through at the moment:
— beIN SPORTS (@beINSPORTS_EN) February 13, 2021
So, even though they are facing a relegation, side nothing is guaranteed for Liverpool right now.
Even though it lost, 2-0, to Tottenham on Thursday, the Cottagers have really improved, allowing only 1.11 xG in their last nine matches and keeping clean sheets in five of them. That’s a drastic improvement from the first half of the season when they were allowing 1.64 expected goals per match.
However, the problem that has plagued Fulham all season is its performance in front of net.
The Cottagers are averaging only 1.14 xG per match and only created 0.69 xG against Tottenham on Thursday. However, in their first meeting against Liverpool, they did show some scoring prowess, creating 1.50 xG.
With all of the injuries to Liverpool’s defense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Fulham puts the ball in the back of the net multiple times.
Betting Analysis & Picks
With how bad Liverpool has looked over the past month, I really do think Fulham can hang with it even though it’s currently in the relegation zone. The Cottagers’ drastic improvements on defense should be able to hold Liverpool’s attack in check and keep this to a low-scoring match.
Therefore, I am going to back Fulham’s spread of +1.5 at -148 odds.
Pick: Fulham +1.5 (-148)