Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Betting Odds, Preview & Picks: How to Sunday Premier League Match (May 16)
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Grealish.
- Crystal Palace welcomes Aston Villa to their stadium for the squad's penultimate home Premier League fixture.
- While the home side doesn't have much to play for, Aston Villa could be welcoming Jack Grealish back to the starting XI after more than three monthes away.
- See below how Matthew Trebby is betting on the game based on the presence of Grealish.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+200|
|Aston Villa Odds||+130|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -113)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 7 a.m. ET|
|Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Crystal Palace are going through the motions to finish their underwhelming Premier League campaign, while Aston Villa hope to get their talisman back after what was once a promising season.
Jack Grealish’s potential return to the starting lineup could give this game a big shot in the arm. Without him, there’s little in terms of playmaking to get excited about aside from a pair of Crystal Palace players who have little help around them.
Let’s dig in and find the betting value.
Unimpressive Palace Safe for Another Season
Crystal Palace have been fortunate to scrap out some results this year to secure safety. The Eagles are about to enter a summer of uncertainty since manager Roy Hodgson’s future is uncertain, and there are always rumors surrounding the future of Wilfried Zaha.
For now, Palace are spectacularly unspectacular. They have Zaha and Eberechi Eze, a pair of English-born players who have shown great quality going forward.
But that’s it. There are no other players in this squad that are worth mentioning. The midfield is focused on defense and releasing Zaha and Eze on the counter attack. Jordan Ayew and Christian Benteke are below-average strikers. Vincent Guaita is solid in goal, but the defense in front of him is impressively … bleh.
Palace have lost four of their last five games, although their 2-0 win over Sheffield United saw them register 2.25 expected goals (xG), which is their second most of the season (2.84 vs. Fulham on Oct. 24).
Hodgson’s team has managed wins against teams around them in the table by staying organized and relying on their playmakers to create on the counter. A fit Aston Villa side is clearly superior to them, though.
Villa Could Get Big Boost in Attack
Villa have fallen apart a bit since losing Jack Grealish to injury. His last appearance came on Feb. 13 in a 0-0 draw against Brighton, and Villa have won three of their last 13 Premier League games without him.
In those 13 games, Villa is 15th in the Premier League table. They’ve scored just six goals while remaining defensively capable, allowing just 13. They’re firmly in the bottom half of the table in both xG and xGA.
In Villa’s first 22 games, they were fifth in the Premier League with a +9.10 expected goal difference, and that was while playing two fewer games than all but four other teams in the league.
Good news for Villa: Grealish returned on Thursday against Everton in a 0-0 draw, playing 18 minutes off the bench. One would think that the next step is starting on Sunday against Crystal Palace.
Villa were on the verge of European competition next season before Grealish’s injury. They made some noteworthy signings in the summer to help avoid becoming a one-man show and while some of those have worked out, Villa clearly only goes as far as Grealish takes them.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Aston Villa are the better team and likely to control the play. They’ll have a lot going their way in terms of talent and momentum if Grealish is in the starting XI, so I’ll go with them at a plus number if that is the case.
If Grealish does not play, under 2.5 goals at -113 will be of great value. Neither team has shown much initiative toward creating a lot of chances lately, and that’ll likely continue to be the case if the best playmaker between the two sides doesn’t play.
Pick: Aston Villa +130 if Grealish starts | Under 2.5 goals -113 if Grealish does not start