With just three games under their belts, shocked favorites still have a long way to patch up their season while surprising underdogs will want to keep their gains close.
With nine games on the schedule this week, our staff has come up clutch with picks in four matches. Continue reading for our UEFA Champions League best bets for Wednesday, November 5.
Champions League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that our soccer betting staff is targeting from today's games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Match | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Galatasaray SK vs. Ajax
Currently rooted to the bottom of the 36-team Champions League standings, Ajax have conceded the most goals, alongside Frankfurt, with 11. That’s a 3.67 xGA per 90 rate heading into matchday four, with obvious concerns surrounding the team’s defensive structure at this level.
Galatasaray’s only away fixture came in Frankfurt on matchday one, a 5-1 in favor of the Germans. Although that recent away performance might have flattered Frankfurt (1.21 xG vs 1.09 xG), there was enough proof to suggest that Ajax can capitalise and find the net here.
Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, forecasts a match goal output of 3.17 for Galatasaray’s trip to Amsterdam. Four goals or more have been scored in four of the six combined matches both have participated in so far in this competition.
Pick: Over 3.0 Asian Goals (-149)
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FC Barcelona vs. Club Brugge
Barcelona hasn’t had it all its own way at the start of this season. Still, even with Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha missing this game, Barcelona still has the necessary firepower to record an emphatic win in Belgium. Both Lamine Yamal and Marcus Rashford are in exceptional form, and Flick’s aggressive approach to the game means plenty of chances fall their way.
Since the start of last season, Barcelona has scored an average of 3.06 goals per game in the Champions League, more than any other team. During that period, Flick’s team has been priced at odds of 1.50/-200 on the 1x2 market on six occasions in this competition.
Club Brugge has already suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich this season. The Bavarians won 4-0 and were credited with creating four clear-cut chances. Unlike Bayern, Barcelona won’t have home advantage, but winning this one by a two-goal margin looks achievable given the quality of the visitors’ attack.
Pick: Barcelona -1.25 Asian Handicap (-109)
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City
Manchester City looks a much-improved team when compared to last season. Pep Guardiola’s side comes into this game on the back of an impressive 3-1 home win over Bournemouth. However, while they generated 2.22 xG, the visitors were able to cause problems on the break and from set pieces. City has now failed to keep a clean sheet in its last three competitive matches.
Since losing its first home game of the campaign against Tottenham, City has won its five competitive matches at the Etihad. So far this season, Guardiola’s side has scored an average of 2.5 goals per game at home, 1.83 more than its opponents. However, Dortmund’s attack will be one of the most dangerous that City has faced.
BVB is averaging 2.07 goals per competitive game this season. Niko Kovac has transformed Dortmund, and his team continues to impress in the Champions League. It has lost just one of its eight matches in this competition since the managerial change, averaging 2.33 goals per game. BVB has scored 12 goals across three league phase matches this season, and certainly has the quality to find the net at the Etihad.
Pick: Manchester City To Win & Both Teams To Score (+160)
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Athletic Bilbao vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle has struggled for consistency this season, but has produced its best performances in the Champions League. Eddie Howe’s side has won its last two matches in this competition, scoring seven goals in the process. However, the 3-0 win over Benfica was the Magpies' only home clean sheet in this competition under Howe.
Athletic Bilbao has scored in its last two league matches. Arsenal, which boasts the best defensive record in Europe’s top five leagues, managed to keep a clean sheet against the Basque side, but Newcastle is conceding 0.8 more goals per game than the Gunners in the Premier League.
Ernesto Valverde’s side was beaten 4-1 by Dortmund in its last European away match. Bilbao was credited with creating two big chances and is likely to pose a threat at St. James’s Park. However, home advantage should be enough for Newcastle to earn all three points.
Pick: Newcastle To Win & Both Teams To Score (+240)
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