Chelsea (2-1-0) and Qarabag FK (2-1-0) will face off today at 12:45 p.m. EST at Azersun Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Chelsea is favored at a -275 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+120o / -165u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Qarabag prediction.
Chelsea vs. Qarabag Prediction
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap
My Chelsea vs. Qarabag best bet is on Chelsea to win by two or more goals.
Chelsea vs. Qarabag Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 3.5 120o / -165u | -275 |
| Qarabag Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 3.5 120o / -165u | +650 |
Chelsea vs. Qarabag Picks, Parlay
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap (+100)
Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea is a dangerous team that could easily compete at any level. However, five red cards this season have been costly, and might explain any criticism of underperformance in the Premier League or Champions League standings.
After a surprising loss to Sunderland at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea quickly returned to winning ways. Despite the struggles against Wolves in the League Cup, they dominated in the weekend’s away trip to Tottenham.
Despite only managing a 1-0 win, the underlying metrics show the Blues were highly offensive. Maresca’s team managed a stunning 3.69 xG (expected goals) while keeping the opposition to only 0.11 xG.
Qarabag is performing well offensively in the Champions League, averaging 2.0 goals per game. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story: the Azerbaijani side has managed only 4.0 xG across three games.
An Asian handicap line of -1.5 is set for Chelsea as they prepare to travel to Azerbaijan. This handicap requires the Blues to win the game by a two-goal margin at a minimum to yield profits for any bettors siding with the favorites.
The last and only time these two sides met was in the 2017/18 Champions League group stage. Chelsea were priced similarly, as it is now ahead of matchday four away in Azerbaijan. The two fixtures saw ten goals, with Qarabag failing to register on the scoresheet: 0-4 and 6-0.
As a result, we are siding with Maresca’s team to cover the spread, with the bet further confirmed by our internal data projection model, BETSiE.
Chelsea vs. Qarabag Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|
| 76.9% | 14.4% | 8.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|
| 2.47 | 3.15 | 0.68 |
Chelsea vs. Qarabag Betting Analysis
The Blues are the overwhelming favorites according to the bookmakers, but the teams both have six points after three matches.
Qarabag will be delighted with the start it has made. Wins over Benfica and Copenhagen mean that Gurban Gurbanov’s side is 13th in the league phase, comfortably inside the knockout playoff places. A surprise result here would put the home side in an excellent position.
Chelsea started its Champions League campaign with a 3-1 defeat against Bayern, but Enzo Maresca’s side has bounced back since then.
In its last European match, the English side beat Ajax 5-1. Maresca will be hoping his team can secure another emphatic win here as it looks to improve its goal difference, which could prove pivotal in the race to finish in the top eight.
The Qarabag vs Chelsea odds have the away team as heavy odds-on favorites. Chelsea commands a 1.36/-278 win price on the 1x2 market. The current pricing implies a 73.5% likelihood of an away victory.
Chelsea vs. Qarabag Projected Starting Lineups
Chelsea
Sanchez; Gusto, Acheampong, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Lavia, Fernandez; Estevao, Pedro, Gittens; Guiu.
Qarabag
Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Borges; Duran, Andrade, Zoubir; Akhundzade.
