Premier League Betting Odds, Preview, Picks for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Wolves (Sunday, May 16)

Spurs vs. Wolves Odds

Tottenham suffered a setback in its quest for the Champions League when Spurs lost to Leeds United last week, 3-1. They’ll need a win on Sunday and a strong finish to the PL season if they want to make the Europa League.

Because Spurs are playing for Europe, and Wolverhampton has nothing on the line, the line is inflated in this matchup.

There’s value in betting against Spurs as they host a tough-to-break-down Wolves side on Sunday. Wolverhampton may not have much to play for, but the market tends to overvalue motivation mismatches late in the season.

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Spurs Have More Freedom Under New Manager

It’s difficult to gauge Spurs now under new manager Ryan Mason.  They have controlled matches against Southampton and Sheffield United, but looked tactically inept and unable to progress the ball up the pitch against Manchester City and Leeds United.

It’s clear that Mason has given them more freedom to play less negatively than former manager José Mourinho. It’s not clear that this will make Spurs any better defensively as they have talent and execution issues at centerback and fullback. They showed signs of improved play, but that came against teams that are worse defensively than Wolves.

Tottenham have, in general, been overvalued in the market this season. They sit seventh in the league despite being eighth in xG difference and eighth in my power ratings. Spurs are +4 in xG difference, though, and +20 in actual goals thanks to elite finishing and goalkeeping. As good as their front three have been, the defensive issues are hard to ignore, and Wolves should be able to create chances against them, much like they did in the first matchup that ended 1-1.

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Wolves Know How to Fluster Better Sides

Wolves turned in some pretty dire performances with key players out prior to their win against Brighton last week. The return of Ruben Neves to central midfield to provide tackles and interceptions proved vital for the defense, and the attack has shown signs of life with the infusion of youth from Fabio Silva up top.

Silva is far away from being a PL star, but he’s shown improvements throughout the season. He’s averaged 0.39 xG per 90, about the same as Raul Jimenez was pre-injury and more than previous Jimenez-replacement William José provided.

Wolves are the kind of team that may struggle to break down some of the league’s worst sides because they are so possession averse, but most teams that want the ball against Wolves struggle to break them down. Mason’s Spurs are sure to fit in this category, and Wolves will be happy to sit deeper, absorb pressure and counter through Adama Traoré. Even without breakout attacking midfielder Pedro Neto, their attack has still been capable on the counter.

Betting Analysis & Pick

My power ratings suggest these two teams are not nearly as far apart as the market does. The eighth-best team in my ratings vs. the 11th, my second biggest edge of the weekend is betting Wolves to avoid defeat. While Spurs may be in the midst of the new manager bump and  are fighting for Europe, both of those are driving the market far higher than it should be on these two sides.

Wolves are the kind of team Spurs haven’t been able to put away all year, and three weeks after Mourinho, that’s not likely to change.

Pick: Wolves +1 (-125 or better)