Lille vs. AC Milan Europa League Betting Odds, Predictions & Picks (Thursday, Nov. 26)
Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Lille star Yusuf Yavici celebrates his goal with teammates.
- AC Milan are off and running in Serie A this season but things have not come as easy in the Europa League.
- Milan are underdogs in their match against Lille and considering what happened in their last encounter, it's not surprising to see the odds line up this way.
- Jeremy Pond shares his favorite bets for Thursday's Europa League match:
Lille vs. AC Milan Odds
|Lille Odds||+140 [BET NOW]|
|AC Milan Odds||+210 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+220 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-117/-106) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | UniMás|
Drama and excitement should be the dominant themes Thursday when Lille hosts AC Milan in an ultra-important Europa League match in France.
Both clubs are fighting for control of Group H in the European competition, with the Ligue 1 outfit just a point ahead of its Italian guest.
The last time these sides met saw Lille pulling off a convincing, yet somewhat surprising, 3-0 road triumph at San Siro. Yusuf Yazıcı recorded the hat trick in the rout, which vaulted Les Dogues to the top of the group standings.
With that said, let’s take a look at this match and see what could on deck.
Things could not be going any better for the French powerhouse entering this match at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Les Dogues, coming off a 4-0 win over Lorient this past weekend, is unbeaten in group play. Lille is also cruising along in Ligue 1 competition, sitting two points behind European juggernaut Paris Saint-Germain in second place on the 20-team table.
The club’s lone blemish in Europa play came via a 2-2 draw against Celtic in the second fixture of the competition.
Manager Christophe Galtier has his outfit in top shape, knowing a win in this latest meeting with AC Milan would send them well on their way to the knockout phase of the tournament.
When looking at the data and statistics, Lille really could not be doing much better in the grand scheme of things. Les Dogues have a stellar 6.4 expected goals and even more impressive 1.8 expected goals against, generating a +4.6 xGDiff and +1.51 xGDiff/90 minutes.
As you will see below, Lille has much better advanced metrics across the board when pitted head to head against AC Milan in all categories.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The Rossoneri are coming off a huge, 3-1 win against Napoli on the weekend in Serie A action. However, that victory came at an extremely costly price.
AC Milan star Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who recorded a brace (two goals) in the match, went down with a thigh injury in the victory and will miss up to a month of action. That is a brutal loss for the club entering this affair, with first place essentially up for grabs.
Only time will tell if the Rossoneri can adjust and find success with its marquee player. Unfortunately for them, they had little time to prepare for life without Ibrahimovic heading into this match against a very in-form Lille side.
As for its numbers when matched against its French counterpart, AC Milan has some very respectable stats. The Rossoneri sit on 4.7 expected goals and 2.9 expected goals against, resulting in a +1.8 xGDiff and +0.61 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Again, these are very good in the grand scheme of things, but still well behind Lille across the board.
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Lille-AC Milan Picks
The last time these sides met, I backed AC Milan and proceeded to take a bath in that play. Lille absolutely deserved that win on Italian soil, and I’m not afraid to admit I underestimated the club in that fixture.
With that in mind, I’m not about to make the same mistake twice and will back Les Dogues on the Draw No Bet wager. Simply out, Lille is in better form and has to be even more confident in getting a result with Ibrahimovic set to miss this crucial showdown.
Add in the fact Lille has kept three consecutive clean sheets against AC Milan, and I like this play even more.
I will also sprinkle a little on Yazıcı to score at a ripe price. Not only did he light up AC Milan last time out, but he’s been in top form across all competitions.
Picks: Lille Draw No Bet (-148) | Yusuf Yavici (Lille) To Score: Yes (+270)
- Villareal ML (-124) vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv: The top two teams in Group I go at it on Israeli soil, with the Spanish side and group leader looking to put away the rest of the quartet with a win. Back the La Liga side rolled to a 4-0 shutout win the last time these sides met, which has me confident in this play.
- LASK Linz ML (-148) vs. Royal Antwerp: This is a huge Group J fixture, with these sides (along with Tottenham Hotspur) all tied on six points. Linz secured a 1-0 win in their November 5 meeting in Belgium, so it has to feel confident heading into this home fixture.
- AZ Alkmaar vs. Real Sociedad (Both Teams To Score — Yes/-148): Honestly, this might be the match of the day. The Cheeseheads (yes, that’s Alkmaar’s actual nickname) is hoping to avenge a 1-0 defeat at San Sebastián three weeks back, so expect the Dutch side to be up for this game. Neither club has issues finding the net, so I will take a minor swing on BTTS in this spot.
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