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Tottenham vs Arsenal Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Tottenham vs Arsenal Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview article feature image
Credit:

Catherine Ivill/Getty. Pictured: Mikel Arteta.

  • Tottenham and Arsenal clash on Sunday in an important North London Derby.
  • Is there betting value in the Premier League fixture?
  • Read on for BJ Cunningham's pick and prediction.

Tottenham vs. Arsenal Odds

Sunday, Jan. 15
11:30 a.m. ET
Peacock
Tottenham Odds +210
Arsenal Odds +120
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-128 / +106)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-164 / +128)
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Tottenham and Arsenal meet for a crucial North London Derby with the Gunners fighting to hold onto the top spot in the table, while Spurs are looking to get back inside the top four.

Spurs have been in weird form coming out of the World Cup break, as they needed two goals to come back and draw with Brentford, lost at home to Aston Villa and then put four goals past Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.

Tottenham were beaten throughly at the Emirates, so we will see if they see if they can get some revenge this time around.

Arsenal were held scoreless last time out in the Premier League in a 0-0 draw with Newcastle. The Gunners are flying this season, as they’ve only dropped points in three of their 17 Premier League matches. However, it’s been 12 years since the last time they won at White Hart Lane.

Tottenham Facing Regression on Both Sides of Pitch

Tottenham did score four goals against Crystal Palace, but it was off of 1.4 xG and they did nothing in the first half taking just three shots and creating 0.16 xG.

I don’t really see a path to Tottenham creating over 1 xG because the matchup is terrible for them. Tottenham are incredibly set piece-reliant to score their goals. They currently lead the Premier League with 10 set piece goals.

From a non-penalty perspective, Tottenham have been running really hot offensively. From open play they’ve scored 23 goals off of 18.25 xG and their 10 set piece goals have come off of 6.96 xG, per the Analyst.

Tottenham have not been good out of the World Cup break, even with that 4-0 win against Crystal Palace. They have a -0.6 xGD in three matches. 

With all of that being said, Tottenham have been a good defensive team this season, especially at home. Spurs allow a high number of shots, but their xG per shot allowed is one of the lowest in the Premier League and they’re also the best set piece defense, which is huge going up against the best set piece offense in Arsenal. 

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Arsenal Still Stifling Opponents

Arsenal had some problems in and around the penalty area, but they were able to play right through Newcastle’s pressure in their last fixture.

The Gunners had a buildup completion percentage of 86.7%, Newcastle only forced four high turnovers and they had a PPDA of 9.7. Arsenal are not going to see anywhere near that type of resistance against Tottenham, who have become a very low block and counter type of team.

Arsenal 3 : 1 Spurs

▪ xG: 2.02 – 1.36
▪ xThreat: 2.12 – 0.64
▪ Possession: 64.2% – 35.8%
▪ Field Tilt: 79.9% – 20.1%
▪ Def Line Height: 53.2 – 33.4#msbot_eng #epl pic.twitter.com/Qv1bFIPTnj

— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) October 1, 2022

Arsenal have conceded just one goal off of set pieces this season, but they are seventh in xG allowed per set piece. The Arsenal defense this season has just 9.55 xG from open play in 18 matches and is only allowing 0.75 npxG per 90 minutes this season. In fact, Arsenal are the number one team in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed and have allowed just one in their last seven matches. 

The main reason why Arsenal’s defense has been so good is because of their ability to defend in transition. Arsenal are allowing the second-lowest opponent build up percentage and are allowing the fewest progressive passes + dribbles per 90 minutes. That is massive against Tottenham, who are likely going to sit deep and look to counter Arsenal.

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Tottenham vs. Arsenal Pick

The tactics for Tottenham are going to be very simple. Spurs are going to sit deep in their low defensive block, they will get the field tilted on them, and they will rely on their passing.

With how good Arsenal’s pressing and transition defense has been, it’s really hard for me to see a path to Tottenham creating over 1 xG in in this match, especially with Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski questionable to play.

So, I like the no on both teams to score, which is currently sitting at a nice price of +135 at DraftKings.

Pick: Both Teams to Score- No (+135)

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