Leicester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FA Cup Odds, Picks, Predictions: Are Foxes Overvalued? (Feb. 10)
Glyn Kirk/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion players celebrate a goal.
- Premier League foes Leicester City and Brighton & Hove Albion go at it Wednesday in FA Cup action.
- The Seagulls, who have knocked off Liverpool and Spurs during their recent climb up the EPL table, look to add another big-name victim to their résumé.
- BJ Cunningham explains why he likes Brighton in this fifth-round showdown below.
Leicester City vs. Brighton Odds
|Leicester City Odds||-117|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
Leicester City and Brighton & Hove Albion meet Wednesday in the fifth round of the FA Cup Round at King Power Stadium.
The Foxes were held to a scoreless draw with Wolves in Premier League action over the weekend, which is third time in their last four matches in which they have dropped points.
Leicester City made it to the fifth round of this competition by beating second-tier sides Stoke City and Brentford, with both victories coming on the road. A win and a trip to the quarterfinals could be just what the Foxes need to get back on track in England’s top flight.
On the other side, Brighton is starting to show signs of the positive regression they were due for following huge victories over Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool over the past two weeks. The Seagulls have now made their way out of the relegation fight toward the middle of the league table.
Another triumph over a big club could keep Brighton soaring toward where they actually belong in the league standings.
The Foxes sitting in third place on the table is a tad inflated. They have been too reliant on two things: penalties and Jaime Vardy. Leicester City has been awarded nine penalties, the most in the league this season. It’s also struggling to create chances from open play, with only 1.08 expected goals per match.
In addition to that, Vardy has been the Foxes’ only scoring threat this season. The 33-year-old has been involved in 44 percent of their goals, averaging a ridiculous 0.77 xG per 90 minutes.
Leicester City has also struggled at the King Power during the campaign. The clubs has only taken 16 of a possible 33 points at home, which is the league’s ninth-best mark. They also have a -0.28 xGDiff at home, which is not what you’d expect from a club positioned inside the top four in the standings.
The Seagulls are finally starting to get results they deserve after picking up seven points in their last three matches. For those not aware, Brighton is perhaps the most underrated team across Europe’s five major leagues. The Seagulls are positioned in 15th place, but based on the expected-points metric at understat.com, they should be 11 points and eight spots higher in the table.
Brighton is still due for some positive regression, though, specifically on the offensive end of the pitch. The Seagulls have only put 25 balls in the back of the net, but have created 32.97 xG, which is the ninth best mark in the league and only 1.39 less than what Leicester City has generated.
So, Brighton is absolutely capable of pulling off an FA Cup upset.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I think the Foxes are a tad overvalued in this spot, especially given their struggles at home this season. The Seagulls are starting to see a lot positive regression, which I think will carry over into this showdown.
Since I only have Leicester City projected at +131, I think there is some value on Brighton’s spread of +0.5 at -103 odds.
Pick: Brighton +0.5 (-103)