Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: Fulham vs. Manchester United (Wednesday, Jan. 20)
Jon Super – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United standouts Paul Pogba, left, and Marcus Rashford.
- Relegation side Fulham hosts Manchester United in Premier League action on Wednesday afternoon.
- Can the Red Devils go top of the table with a victory at Craven Cottage?
- Matthew Trebby thinks so and delivers his top pick below.
Fulham vs. Manchester United Odds
|Fulham Odds||+500 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester United Odds||-180 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+320 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-152/+120) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Fulham hosts red-hot Manchester United on Wednesday in Premier League action, with both sides needing points at either opposite ends of the table.
The Cottagers sit in the relegation zone on 12 points, four behind Burnley and five back of Brighton & Hove Albion, whom they have two games in hand on.
Meanwhile, Manchester United is in second lace after Leicester City’s victory over Chelsea on Tuesday, with a win putting Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s club back in first in England’s top flight.
A Manchester United win is to be expected, but where is the betting value?
While Fulham is winless in its last seven league games, that run has still been an encouraging one for the host side. It includes draws with Liverpool, Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur, as well as Saturday’s one-goal loss to Chelsea.
What doomed the Cottagers during the 2018-19 season that saw them relegated was a terrible defensive record. They have slightly improved upon that this season, only conceding 25 goals in 17 games. That figure is legitimized by their 24.11 non-penalty expected goals against.
Fulham’s latest defensive form at Craven Cottage has been solid, with it conceding a total of two goals between fixtures against Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton and Chelsea. The problem is that the Cottagers have scored just once in those games, which came against Liverpool.
The Cottagers need their primary attackers — Ivan Cavaleiro, Ademola Lookman and Aleksandar Mitrovic — to be a bit more ruthless in front of goal. All three have two goals this season, with Cavaleiro and Mitrovic each scoring once from the penalty spot.
Fulham’s leading scorer in the league this season is Bobby Reid, who has been playing right wingback of late.
The defense is stable primarily thanks to loan-signing Joachim Andersen from Lyon. The Dane struggled in Ligue 1 last season and was in need of game time ahead of the European championships this summer. While the Cottagers might go down at the end of the season, it won’t be because of him.
Why are the Red Devils challenging for the league title this season?
Simply put, their away form.
Manchester United has only gotten 14 points from nine home games this season, but has won seven and drawn two for a staggering 23 points away from Old Trafford. The only two matches the Red Devils have dropped points in away from home were against Leicester City and Liverpool, both 0-0 draws.
Manchester United hasn’t just been winning away from home. It has been doing so quite convincingly. The Red Devils have scored at least three goals in six of the nine away fixtures they’ve played this season.
Bruno Fernandes has been an exceptional signing in his first year on the red side of Manchester, while Marcus Rashford has seven goals and five assists in league play.
United will enter this game one point behind first-place Leicester City after the Foxes’ victory over the Blues, although Manchester City also lurks two points behind it with a game in hand. Reigning league champion Liverpool is three back of Manchester United in fourth place.
Betting Analysis & Picks
While Fulham has been able to get some good results of late, it’s still conceding many quality chances to the league’s big boys.
Since the start of November, the Red Devils have allowed 1.85 expected goals against to West Ham United; 2.25 to Everton; 2.04 to Leicester City; 3.26 to Manchester City; 1.82 to Liverpool; and, 3.14 to Spurs.
The Cottagers played well in their last match, holding Chelsea to a respectable 1.38 xGA, but they’re going to be forced to sit back and hope Manchester United can’t break through.
Given the Red Devils’ away form and creativity going forward, I’m not a huge fan of the “Well, let’s bunker down and hope they don’t score!” strategy against the best teams in England. Manchester United was held to just a 1-0 win over Burnley back on Jan. 12, but Fulham is not as tough and defensively resolute as manager Sean Dyche’s side.
Manchester United is getting plus money at -1.5 (+155 on DraftKings), so I’ll back it there. I expect a team that has taken care of business away from home all season, especially against inferior opposition, to continue the trend.
Pick: Manchester United -1.5 (+155)