Premier League Odds, Picks, Betting Previews for Newcastle United vs. Sheffield United & Burnley vs. Liverpool (Wednesday, May 19)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Betting Previews for Newcastle United vs. Sheffield United & Burnley vs. Liverpool (Wednesday, May 19) article feature image
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Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson, center, celebrates with his teammates after scoring the winning goal against West Bromwich Albion.

  • The Premier League has entered the final stretch, with teams having widely varying motivations to finish out the season.
  • Both Newcastle and Sheffield United have very little to play for, while a Liverpool victory over Burnley is needed to keep the Reds in the Champions League hunt.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down both games below and gives his betting picks.

Newcastle vs. Sheffield United Odds

Newcastle Odds -122
Sheffield United Odds +340
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-136 / +108)
Day | Time Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Wednesday at 11 a.m. ET via DraftKings.

There are just two days left in the Premier League season, with a set of matches taking place Wednesday across the country in England’s top flight.

Some of these games are meaningless for all intents and purposes. Others have major ramifications attached to them, including Champions League spots. We are going to break down one of each for you, highlighted by the defending — and dethroned — league champion playing a huge road contest.

However, we’ll first take a look at one of those contests with little to nothing to play for on the schedule. Yes, we’re talking about Newcastle United hosting last-place Sheffield United at St. James’ Park.

Then, we’ll take you Turf Moor for the Reds’ key fixture with the Clarets of Burnley and see if we can give you a strong angle in that intriguing contest.

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Newcastle, Sheffield United Playing for Pride

The Magpies welcome the Blades to Tyneside for a showdown between clubs who have had seasons to forget. Newcastle, which sits in 16th place in the standings on 39 points, has lost two of its last three matches and would love to close its campaign with two wins and move up the table.

On the other side, Sheffield United is headed back to the Championship after an atrocious season. The Blades have either won or drawn only eight of their 36 league tilts going into the final games, which should tell you how bad things have been for the first division’s worst team.

Newcastle enters this showdown fresh off a wild 4-3 loss to league champion Manchester City last time out. In contrast, Sheffield United pulled a rabbit out its proverbial hat with its stunning 1-0 win over Everton.

When it comes to the advanced metrics, Newcastle holds a major edge in all categories. The Magpies sit on 38.4 expected goals and a lackluster 52.3 expected goals against, resulting in a -13.9 xGDiff and -0.39 xGDiff/90 minutes.

As for Sheffield United, it has subpar 30.0 xG and ghastly 60.0 xGA against, generating an abysmal -30.0 xGDiff and -0.83 xGDiff/90 minutes. Needless to say, those are downright terrible numbers.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I’m keeping this simple and not digging any deeper than what we see at face value in this battle of inferior teams. The Magpies are the better group and should find a way to bag all three points on home soil.

You have to think Sheffield United might bounce off that stunning victory over Everton this past weekend, probably wishing it didn’t have to play any more games and could just end on that high note.

That said, I’m backing Newcastle to win this affair outright and will play it at -139 odds via DraftKings as my top selection.

Pick: Newcastle ML (-139)

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Burnley vs. Liverpool Odds

Burnley Odds +950
Liverpool Odds -385
Draw +540
Over/Under 3.5 (-107 / -117)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds updated Wednesday at 11 a.m. ET via DraftKings.

Liverpool Facing Must-Win Situation at Turf Moor

Occasionally, a random hero shows up at the most opportune time in the game of soccer. This past weekend, the absolute unlikeliest of legends earned his spot in the Liverpool’s storied history.

Goalkeeper Alisson etched his permanent place in the Liverpool annals, heading home the winning goal five minutes into stoppage time to give the Reds an unreal 2-1 road win over West Bromwich Albion.

The goal — and victory — kept Liverpool’s UCL dreams alive, setting up a wild finish for the former champion heading into the final days of the season.

When comparing their advanced metrics, Liverpool dominates the statistics. The Reds boast a stellar 67.9 expected goals and 43.9 expected goals against, generating an impressive +24.0 xGDiff and +0.67 xGDiff/90 minutes.

As for Burnley, the club has 38.2 xG and a brutal 54.2 xGA, resulting in a -16.0 xGDiff and -0.44 xGDiff/90 minutes. Needless to say, these are the kind of the stats you’ll find saddled with any team near the bottom of the standings.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Liverpool had to be disappointed when it found out Chelsea earned a 2-1 win over Leicester City in Tuesday’s game. That allowed the Blues to leapfrog the Foxes into third place, thus keeping the Reds three points out of fourth place.

However, a victory over Burnley would put Liverpool level with Leicester City on points, but launch it into fourth place due to an edge in goal differential. Finishing in fourth would send the club to the Champions League.

I fully expect the Reds to come out with a full-blown offensive onslaught against the Clarets, pounding their hosts until the final whistle. They have to be carrying a ton of confidence after that miracle at The Hawthorns, so anticipate them to light things up at Turf Moor.

For those reasons, I am backing Liverpool to cover the -1.75 spread and will make it my top pick. It would not surprise me if we saw a 3-0 or 4-0 scoreline, so play the Reds with plenty of optimism.

Pick: Liverpool -1.75 (-121)

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