West Ham United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions
David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion goalkeeperRobert Sánchez.
West Ham vs. Brighton Odds
|West Ham Odds||+125|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Still seeking its first win of the season, West Ham United welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to the London Stadium for Sunday’s showdown.
The Hammers dropped all three points in both of its first opening fixtures against Manchester City and Nottingham Forest. Meanwhile, the Seagulls arrive in fine form having won against Manchester United and drawn with Newcastle United.
Last season, Brighton was unbeaten against West Ham, winning 3-1 at home after drawing 1-1 at the London Stadium.
West Ham United
Lady Luck wasn’t on West Ham’s side last week as it came up remarkably unfortunate at Nottingham Forest.
Manager David Moyes’s side, which lost the match via a 1-0 defeat, generated 2.26 expected goals and two big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Further, THREE shots from the Hammers found the woodwork, with Declan Rice also missing a penalty for a chance to level the score.
Perhaps more alarmingly, the West Ham defense has looked broken in its first two games. So far this season, the Hammers conceded 3.59 xG and seven big scoring chances.
By The Numbers
- 56 — Number of penalty area touches allowed by West Ham this season.
- 19th— The Hammers’ xGA ranking through two fixtures, tying them for second worst in the metric.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton walked away with a 0-0 draw against Newcastle last time out, but was unlucky not to grab all three points.
Manager Graham Potter’s side won the xG battle by a 1.5-0.22 margin and the big scoring chances battle via a 3-0 edge, while limiting the Magpies to only four total shots, per fotmob.com.
Through two fixtures, the Seagulls have looked the better side on both occasions. At Manchester United, it won the match, 2-1, while narrowly carrying the xG battle (1.5-1.38) in the process.
Now, Brighton gets a side which it has dominated in recent memory. Across the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Brighton is 4-0-6 (W-L-D) and has a +4.7 expected-goal differential in those 10 matches, per fbref.com.
By The Numbers
- 1.37 — Number of xG per 90 minutes from Brighton when facing West Ham in their last 10 meetings.
- 0 — Number of times the Seagulls have failed to scored in their last 10 outings against Hammers.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Without question, Brighton is a live underdog, but rather than backing it for the full match I’ll get creative with a prop bet.
If there’s one known quantity, it’s the West Ham defense. Although positive offensive regression could be on the way, this remains a back line ranking sixth worst in penalty area touches against and has kept a grand total of ZERO clean sheets in its last 10 head-to-head fixtures against Brighton.
Should the Seagulls manage to get a least one goal on the board, that activates a historically profitable trend for them. In 25 games where Brighton managed at least one tally last season, it won at least one of the halves in 21 contests and avoided defeat in at least one half in all 25 affairs.
Expand the sample to include the last two seasons and that measure becomes 38 of 51 or 75 percent. Somehow, you’re getting a solid price on this prop play.
With West Ham on short rest, back Brighton via this plus-money prop bet.
The Pick: Brighton to Win Either Half (+105 | play to -135)
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