What Is a Double Chance in Soccer Betting?
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: United States standout Christian Pulisic.
Double chance is among the most popular game props in soccer betting, offering users a safer (albeit more expensive) way to back a particular outcome.
Here's how it works.
With the double chance, you're betting on two of the possible three outcomes in a soccer match — Team A wins, Team B wins, or it's a draw.
Let's use USA vs. Wales in the 2022 World Cup as an example.
FanDuel lists all three options for the USA-Wales double chance at greater than -200.
- If I bet USA & Draw (-270), I'll win if the US wins or it ends in a draw.
- If I bet Wales & Draw (-210), I'll win if Wales wins or it ends in a draw.
- If I bet USA and Wales (-260), I'll win if either team wins, and lose if it ends in a draw.
The odds of each are really just a sum of the three-way moneyline probabilities. Here are the probabilities converted to game odds, added together, then converted back to American odds.
| Player Name | Probability | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|
| USA & Draw | 38.46% + 33.90% = 72.36% | -262 |
| Wales & Draw | 33.33% + 33.90% = 67.23% | -205 |
| USA or Wales | 38.46% + 33.33% = 72.36% | -262 |
As you can see, when you add the probabilities of each side together, you get pretty close to the double chance odds. Then the books just add a little juice on top.
Because the lines are pretty pricey (given that they're much more likely to happen because they include two of three possible outcomes), many bettors will parlay multiple double chances together. For example, parlaying USA or Draw and Mexico or Draw in their match against Poland comes out to -109.
This is what double chance odds look like for a match that is believed to be relatively even. But what about when one team is a huge favorite?
Let's take a look at England vs. Iran in their opening World Cup match.
Betting the double chance of England or a draw will cost you — it's -1900 at FanDuel! That means a $190 bet will pay out $10.
Because England or the draw are by far the most likely outcomes based on the three-way moneyline, you're paying a massive price. For England or Iran, you're also paying a huge price with most of that due to England.
Are Double Chances a Good Bet?
There are a few ways handicappers look at double-chance bets.
- If you want to back a sound defensive team that you believe will hang tough, but maybe doesn't have the finishing prowess to pick up all three points, betting that team and the draw on the double chance is an angle to explore.
- If the game is higher variance, featuring two teams that can score, where the draw is more likely, taking either team to win can be a good option.
Whether they're a good bet depends on if you believe you have an edge.
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