USA and Mexico will face off on Sunday at 7:00 p.m. EDT at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Let's get into my USA vs Mexico prediction.
Mexico is favored at a +150 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (+135o / -175u) goals.
USA vs Mexico Prediction
Pick: Mexico ML
My USA vs Mexico best bet is on Mexico Moneyline, with value on El Tri lifting a record 10th Gold Cup.
USA vs Mexico Odds, Gold Cup Pick
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -185 | 2.5 +135o / -175u | +215 |
| Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +135 | 2.5 +135o / -175u | +150 |
USA vs Mexico spread: USA +0.5 (-185), Mexico -0.5 (+135)
USA vs Mexico over/under: 2.5 Goals (+135o / -175u)
USA vs Mexico moneyline: USA +215, Draw +210, Mexico +150
USA vs Mexico best bet: Mexico Moneyline
USA Soccer Betting Preview
It wasn't the smoothest of rides, but the USA is in the Gold Cup final. Having survived a jump scare at the end of their semifinal matchup against Guatemala, Mauricio Pochettino’s team is now just one game away from an eighth Gold Cup and the first title under the Argentine coach.
It would bring Poch some vindication, with the team arriving at the Gold Cup on the back of their worst run of results since 2007. Having done so without many of the team's stars, many of whom are either injured or playing club football in the USA at the FIFA Club World Cup, undoubtedly adds to it.
But they're record against Mexico makes walking away with a third title in the last four finals played far from certain. The USA beat El Tri in five of their last eight matchups, including the 2021 Gold Cup final. However, their previous meetup was a mediocre 2-0 loss at an international friendly, where they recorded just one shot on target.
Mexico Soccer Betting Analysis
Defending champions Mexico, for their part, have a lot going for them. With his physical style of play, the team has become a defensive stalwart under Javier Aguirre. The head coach became the second head coach in Mexico's history to lead El Tri to multiple Gold Cup finals — Gerardo Martino being the other — and will look to add to his tally after winning the 2009 competition.
They have yet to concede a goal in their last four games at the Gold Cup, and have only faced three shots on target. In fact, Mexico has conceded the lowest xG (1.39) overall in the tournament per Opta, and is now on a five-game clean sheet streak in the knockout stages since the 2023 tournament.
The final could also prove a special match for striker Raúl Jiménez. The former Wolverhampton Wanderers forward scored his 41st goal with his national team against Honduras, and is now just 11 short of the all-time record, held by another mythical Mexican striker, Javier Hernández.
USA vs Mexico Pick, Gold Cup Prediction
The USA and Mexico have clashed in seven of the previous 17 Gold Cup finals, a face-off that must rank very high in the most frequent final matchups in soccer history. But while the two North American giants are very tightly matched when it comes to final appearances (13 for the USA, 12 for Mexico) and wins (9 for Mexico, 7 for the USA), the head-to-head isn't. Mexico leads with five wins to two anytime they've matched up in the decider.
It doesn't bode well for the USA, with Aguirre's low-risk football seemingly more suited for finals than Pochettino's adventurous style. The Argentine coach is 1-3 down in finals in his coaching career, only lifting the 2021 Coupe de France with PSG against Monaco.
The Americans have gone from strength to strength in the tournament, but the problem is that Mexico didn't need to. Their 3-2 win in the opener against the Dominican Republic was their only moment of frailty, and they haven't looked back since. A lack of flair could hurt El Tri if the USA plays a disciplined match, but they still have the quality to overcome it.
USA vs Mexico Projected Starting Lineups
USA
Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten; Adams, De la Torre; Berhalter, Tillman, Luna; Agyemang
Mexico
Malagon; Araujo, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Rodriguez, Ed. Alvarez, L. Chavez; Alvarado, Jimenez, Vega
