Real Madrid (4-0-1) and Paris Saint-Germain (4-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.
Let's get into my Real Madrid vs. PSG prediction.
PSG is favored at a +135 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-185o / +135u) goals.
Real Madrid vs. PSG Betting Analysis
Both teams to score backers won’t have enjoyed PSG’s recent matches. This bet hasn’t won in any of their past seven matches across all competitions, but we’re backing that run to the end when they square off against Real Madrid.
Xabi Alonso is enjoying an unbeaten start with Real Madrid. The team drew their first game in charge against Al Hilal, but since then, they have won four matches and looked menacing in the process.
The Spanish side has scored in all five of their matches in this competition. The underlying data shows that it’s not a fluke — their average xG of 1.79 ranks amongst the best in the competition. Real Madrid has created numerous chances in both of its matches in the knockout stage and certainly has the quality to hurt PSG.
This bet landed comfortably as Real Madrid beat Dortmund 3-2 in the last round. Los Blancos have been excellent going forward, but there has been space for opposition attackers to exploit as the squad adjusts to Alonso’s tactics.
PSG’s attack is arguably the most feared in world football at present. Kvaratskhelia’s January move added even more cutting edge to a wonderfully fluid forward line. Dembele, Doue, and Barcola all feature regularly in Luis Enrique’s well-oiled machine. Expect them to make an impact in the semi-final against Real Madrid.
Les Parisiens have failed to score in just one of their last 20 competitive matches. Over that period, they have scored an average of 2.55 goals per game and conceded 0.9. However, Real Madrid is capable of creating more chances than PSG’s average opponent.
Real Madrid vs. PSG Prediction
Pick: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
Real Madrid vs. PSG Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -175 | 2.5 -185o / +135u | +190 |
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +120 | 2.5 -185o / +135u | +135 |
Real Madrid vs. PSG Picks
- Leg 1:Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
- Match — Over 30.5 Throwns (-125)
- Real Madrid Asian Handicap 0.25 (-125)
A clash between two clubs of such prestige is bound to be closely contested. However, our in-house tool projects that the goal count could climb to 3.72.
With the odds in the 1X2 market nearly identical for both sides and our system giving Real Madrid just a 0.3% greater chance of winning than PSG, this presents a unique opportunity to back Los Blancos.
It's rare to find such favorable odds for the 15-time Champions League winners. Since the end of April, only once have their odds for victory been higher: During the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona, which ended 2-2 in regular time before the Blaugrana triumphed in extra-time.
PSG has triumphed in the last five encounters against European clubs outside France (Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, and Bayern Munich) with an aggregate score of 14-1. But this match appears to be the toughest challenge yet for Luis Enrique’s squad.
Real Madrid vs. PSG Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Real Madrid | Draw | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 40.21% | 19.61% | 40.18% |
Projected Total Goals
| Real Madrid | Total Goals | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | 3.72 | 1.86 |
Real Madrid vs. PSG Projected Starting Lineups
Real Madrid
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Fran Garcia; Valverde, Tchouameni, Arda Guler; Bellingham, Gonzalo Garcia, Vinicius Junior.
PSG
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz; Dembele, Doue, Kvaratskhelia
