Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea will face off today in the Club World Cup final match at 3:00 p.m. EDT at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.
PSG is favored at a -165 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-185o / +125u) goals.
Let's get into my PSG vs. Chelsea prediction.
PSG vs. Chelsea Odds
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -190 | 2.5 -185o / 125u | -165 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +130 | 2.5 -185o / 125u | +400 |
PSG vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap
My PSG vs. Chelsea best bet is PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap, as we expect the European champions to keep their winning ways.
PSG vs. Chelsea Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap (-103)
Leg 2: João Pedro Shot On Target From Outside The Box (+450)
Leg 3: PSG To Lift The Trophy and Both Teams To Score – Yes (+125)
The Parisians enter the showpiece fixture as heavy favorites. It’s no surprise that the Asian handicap line is set at -1.0. They've been comfortably swatting aside opponents domestically and in the Champions League, plus Real Madrid, Bayern, and Atleti at the Club World Cup.
A showpiece final might not typically be the kind of game to bet on goals or a team with a significant handicap. However, we saw in the Champions League final against Inter Milan (5-0) that this PSG outfit is not a team adhering to the typical norms at this level.
João Pedro enjoyed a dream start to his Chelsea career by netting both goals in the win over Fluminense. His first was a tremendous effort from distance, so we are backing the Brazilian to have a shot on target from outside the box as part of our Chelsea vs PSG predictions.
Chelsea have had 36 shots from outside the box in this tournament, more than any other team in the competition. They may have to rely on these types of efforts against a PSG side that is conceding very little xGA.
Our in-house projections indicate that PSG has a 55.49% chance of winning in regulation time, greater than their probabilities against Inter Milan in the Champions League final, where they were priced at 2.10 (+110) in the 1x2 market.
With a projected tally of 3.42 goals and Chelsea having scored in each of their last nine matches, backing PSG with this bet builder could be a rewarding strategy for punters.
PSG vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| PSG | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 55.49% | 19.28% | 25.24% |
Projected Total Goals
| PSG | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 2.07 | 3.42 | 1.35 |
PSG vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
Meeting for the first time in nine years, Chelsea and PSG have a lot in common. Both boast wealthy owners, ambitious goals, young squads, defeats in the group stage to Brazilian clubs, and European silverware already secured this season, with the Blues winning the UEFA Conference League.
Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea and Luis Enrique’s PSG have proven themselves worthy finalists in this inaugural edition of the newly structured tournament. However, given their contrasting knockout journeys, it comes as little surprise that PSG are the overwhelming favourites.
PSG's impressive form in 2025 includes victories over three English clubs in the Champions League. Their 18-1 aggregate score against non-French European teams highlights their dominance.
Chelsea, however, enters the final with confidence bolstered by recent signings. They’ll feel they have little to lose —a mindset that may allow them to play more freely.
Nonetheless, there's no mistaking the bookmakers' preference.
The Chelsea vs PSG odds imply a 63% probability of victory within 90 minutes for the French side. They’re the favorite for a reason, given PSG’s dominance in Europe this campaign.
PSG vs. Chelsea Projected Starting Lineups
PSG
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.
Chelsea
Sanchez; Gusto, Colwill, Chalobah, Cucurella; Fernandez, Essugo; Neto, Palmer, Nkunku; Joāo Pedro.
