The Club World Cup quarterfinals kick off tomorrow, with many title contenders still in the mix — along with a few surprises. The race to lift the trophy on July 13 promises to be tight, with plenty of exciting matches ahead.
From the original 32 teams across six confederations competing in the United States, the top eight have emerged. The quarterfinals, set for July 4 and 5, will feature five European clubs, two from South America and one from Asia.
Let’s take a look at Kalshi’s market on who might win it all and see if there’s any betting value.
2025 Club World Cup Winner Odds
There's no surprise at the top: PSG remains the heavy favorite, with a 29% chance to take the title. The Parisian side has led the odds since the tournament began, entering the competition in peak form after winning the Champions League on May 31.
PSG stumbled once in the group stage, falling 1-0 to Botafogo — the reigning Copa Libertadores champions — but solidified their status as frontrunners with dominant performances, including a 4-0 win over Atlético Madrid in their opener and another 4-0 rout against Inter Miami in the Round of 16.
Next up is Real Madrid, with a 25% chance of lifting the trophy. Under new head coach Xabi Alonso, the Spanish giants saw their odds drop to just 7% after a shaky 1-1 draw against Al-Hilal in their tournament debut. But they’ve gained momentum since, knocking out Juventus in the Round of 16. Up next: Borussia Dortmund — a team Madrid has beaten in their past four meetings, including the 2024 Champions League final.
Rounding out the top three is Chelsea, with an 18% chance to win. The London club needed extra time to eliminate Benfica in the Round of 16 and lost to Flamengo in the group stage. Still, thanks to their deep roster and recent success (they’re fresh off a Conference League title), they remain a serious contender.
Close behind is Bayern Munich, with a 15% chance. One of the most consistent and well-rounded teams in the tournament, their odds dipped slightly due to a tough quarterfinal draw against the tournament favorite, PSG. Bayern earned their spot by defeating Flamengo in the previous round.
Further down the list are Palmeiras and Al-Hilal, both with a 7% shot. These clubs are currently the top teams in their respective regions. Al-Hilal, in particular, made headlines by knocking out pre-tournament favorite Manchester City in the Round of 16.
The underdogs? Borussia Dortmund and Fluminense, each with a 5% chance. The German side finished fourth in the most recent Bundesliga, while the Brazilian club currently sits sixth in their domestic league.
Club World Cup Quarterfinals
- Fluminense vs Al Hilal (7/4 – 3:00 p.m. ET)
- Palmeiras vs Chelsea (7/4 – 9:00 p.m. ET)
- PSG vs Bayern Munich (7/5 – 12:00 p.m. ET)
- Real Madrid vs Dortmund (7/5 – 4:00 p.m. ET)
