Chelsea and Fluminense will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.
Let's get into our Chelsea vs. Fluminense prediction.
Chelsea is favored at a -145 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (+100o / -145u) goals.
Chelsea vs. Fluminense Prediction
Pick: Under 1.0 First Half Goals (-120)
Our best bet for Chelsea vs. Fluminense is Under 1.0 First-Half Goals, as we expect a successful initial defensive approach from the Brazilian team.
Chelsea vs. Fluminense Odds for Club World Cup
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-0.5 -160 | 2.5 100o / -145u | -145 |
| Fluminense Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+0.5 +110 | 2.5 100o / -145u | +425 |
Chelsea vs. Fluminense Picks
Pick 1: Under 1.0 First Half Goals (-120)
Pick 2: Over 33.5 Tackles & Over 26.5 Free Kicks (-111)
Pick 3: Chelsea Asian Handicap -0.75 (-111)
With a place in the final at stake, both teams will likely take a conservative approach to the opening half.
Fluminense has conceded zero goals and accumulated just 1.53xG across their two matches against European opposition (Inter Milan and Borussia Dortmund) in this tournament.
Their ability to nullify superior opponents' strengths in the final third suggests a low-scoring start at a period of the game where concentration levels are at their peak.
Fluminense’s best chance of making it to the final is by making this a scrappy game. They don’t have the attacking quality to match Chelsea, but they can make it a difficult 90 minutes for Enzo Maresca’s men.
There were 37 tackles as Fluminense got the better of Al Hilal in the quarter-finals. Chelsea's last game against Palmeiras was also a fiery affair. There were 33 free kicks and 38 tackles in that clash.
Fluminense has a low projected goal tally, and the Blues have a 67.7% chance of victory for Enzo Maresca's side. Betting on Chelsea to win by at least a one-goal margin appears to be a promising option.
Chelsea vs. Fluminense Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7% | 21.1% | 11.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69 | 2.21 | 0.52 |
Chelsea vs. Fluminense Club World Cup Betting Analysis
Our in-house model, BETSiE, forecasts Fluminense to record 0.52xG whilst assigning them just a 12.21% chance of reaching the final. The Blues continue to have odds in their favor, but the Flu are already used to playing from the underdog position.
With a team that is over 10 times more expensive, the English side sits at 1.70 / -143, implying a win probability of 58.8%. However, the Fluzão faced worse odds in their 2-0 win over Inter.
The Blues scored 12 goals from a total of 8.7 xG but now face a tough test. Flu has the second-best defensive record in the competition, conceding only 0.6 goals per match. This illustrates the diverse styles and approaches as two worlds collide for a spot in the finals.
This won’t be about market value or squad depth. Chelsea might have the deeper squad and fresher legs, but Fluminense carries something that doesn’t show in the spreadsheets and stats. Can they find the star factor that has already toppled European giants and come up with another surprise win?
Chelsea vs. Fluminense Projected Starting Lineups
Chelsea
Sanchez; Gusto, Tosin, Chalobah, Cucurella; Fernandez, Caicedo; Neto, Palmer, Nkunku; Joāo Pedro.
Fluminense
Fabio; Ignacio, T. Silva, Fuentes; Xavier, Hercules, Bernal, Nonato, Rene; Arias, Cano.
