There are three matches on the slate Sunday, and the top two World Cup title favorites will be in action, as Germany takes on Mexico and Brazil battles Switzerland.
Don’t ignore the first matchup of the day, though, as Serbia-Costa Rica should provide value for bettors.
Here’s a breakdown of the market for each game and which teams the sharps/public are betting (as of Saturday afternoon).
Serbia vs. Costa Rica (8 a.m. ET), Group E
Sharp money has come in on Serbia in this match, as they’ve moved from +102 to -116 despite receiving just 40% of tickets. Their opponents, Costa Rica (39% of bets), had success in the most recent World Cup, and public bettors feel comfortable betting them as big underdogs. Their odds just keep on rising, though, now up to +420 to pull off the upset.
Over/under bets are split 50/50 on a low total of 2 goals. There have been plenty of quality scoring chances so far during this World Cup, but teams just aren’t converting them.
Germany vs. Mexico (11 a.m. ET), Group F
Defending champions Germany (-203) will begin their quest for another trophy as big favorites against Mexico. Seventy-five percent of tickets have come in on the Germans to open with a victory, but there hasn’t been much line movement so far.
This is another popular over bet by the public, with nearly 85% of wagers. The juice has increased accordingly from -120 to -130.
Brazil vs. Switzerland (2 p.m. ET), Group E
Brazil opened -275 but has fallen to -230 around the market. It must be due to some respected money on Switzerland (+800) and the draw (+375), since 88% of the tickets have come in on Brazil to win. Here’s a look at the Switzerland moneyline and ticket percentage over the past month.
The juice on the over 2.5 has fluctuated a bit since opening but is now right around -120. Public bettors are having a hard time believing there won’t be goals, and more than 75% of tickets are on the over. Everyone knows about Brazil’s offensive weapons and don’t think the Swiss defense will be able to handle them.