Martin Meissner, AP Photo. Pictured: Germany’s Timo Werner
Germany vs. Sweden, 2 p.m. ET, FOX
- Germany -204
- Sweden +665
- Draw +347
Bet To Watch
Over 2.5 goals
It hasn’t been a great start for favorites at the World Cup. Germany will try to turn that around on Saturday in Group F action against Sweden. The Germans commanded 61% of possession and had nine shots on target against Mexico but lost, 1-0, and it actually could have been worse despite the stats advantage.
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Sweden, on the other hand, are off to a perfect start this World Cup after beating South Korea, 1-0, in the opener. They were stifling all game and didn’t allow a shot on target. But that will be nearly impossible to replicate against Germany.
Timo Werner should be the main man up top for Germany although other lineup changes could be in store, such as Marco Reus for Thomas Muller. They need to be quicker with the ball to break down Sweden, but I expect them to adapt and adjust. Although the starting lineup hasn’t been announced yet, it’s hard to imagine head coach Joachim Löw sticking with the status quo.
Public perception plays a big role in sports betting, and it’s been very successful to fade the public in this World Cup because matches are so heavily bet. This goes for spreads and totals, in addition to moneylines, due to the influx of wagers.
For Germany-Sweden, 68% of public bettors have taken under 2.5 goals, but juice has started trending toward the over. Square bettors are remembering Sweden’s defensive effort and Germany’s inability to score, but sharper money is going the other way.
The German attack should be a lot more organized and fluid, so this is a unique contrarian spot to root for goals and the over.