In a rematch from their final group stage game, Belgium will face off against England for third-place on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET. Both teams were left disappointed in the World Cup semifinal as Belgium fell to France, 1-0, and England lost to Croatia, 2-1, in extra time.
Consolation matches are generally high scoring at the World Cup, as the past 10 contests have featured at least three goals.
Here’s a look at the offshore betting market for England-Belgium.
(Keep in mind that all moneylines, spreads and totals are based on 90 minutes of regulation. All data as of 9 a.m. on Friday.)
Belgium +120, England +234, Draw +275
Belgium are the +120 favorites on the moneyline and receiving more than 60% of bets. In addition to that lopsided support, they’re also getting more than 70% of spread bets at the same price (+120), so the public is not too keen on England to win/draw.
I assume this is for a few different reasons:
1. Belgium already beat England in the group stage in a game that neither cared to win.
2. Belgium lost to a better France squad in the semifinal, while England blew a lead against an “inferior” Croatia side.
3. Belgium have had an extra day of rest and haven’t played in any extra time/penalty shootouts. They also have Michy Batshuayi at forward, who did this in the last game against England:
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 28, 2018
There hasn’t been much line movement and I don’t anticipate much sharp money for this game.
The draw has the longest odds at +275, so oddsmakers don’t believe these two teams will have any interest in playing extra time. If you’re betting this game, you’ll want to take either Belgium (+120) or England (+234).
Despite the fact these third-place matches are essentially “meaningless” for each team, there have been plenty of goals scored. Oddsmakers are fully aware of this and have set the total at 3 goals (u-120), which is the highest of the knockout rounds.
Public bettors usually flock to goals, but just 55% of tickets has come in on Over 3. The lack of intensity and star power may actually cater to goals since neither team will really care, so this may be a good contrarian spot to take the over.
Public Betting Support Throughout World Cup
Belgium have received the majority of public bets in just four of seven matches, but they’ve also won twice as big underdogs. Against England in the third-place match, Belgium are slight favorites but are available at plus-money (+120).
England have been a popular bet throughout the tournament, except when they face Belgium. Those are the only two matches where the Three Lions received fewer than half the moneyline bets.