Alexander Zverev vs. Lloyd Harris US Open Quarterfinal Odds, Preview, Pick: Expect Lengthy Match (Sept. 8)

Alexander Zverev vs. Lloyd Harris US Open Quarterfinal Odds, Preview, Pick: Expect Lengthy Match (Sept. 8) article feature image
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Credit: Matthew Stockman, Getty. Alexander Zverev hits a forehand at the 2021 US Open.

Alexander Zverev vs. Lloyd Harris Odds

Zverev Odds -700
Harris Odds +450
Over/Under 34.5
Time 12:15 p.m. ET (subject to change)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

In the third US Open quarterfinal, a battle of two players with similar styles but different pedigrees will commence.

Alexander Zverev, the world No. 4 and fourth seed in the tournament, has raced through to this stage. For the most part, the German hasn’t faced much adversity, though things could have been different if Jack Sock didn’t suffer an injury in their third-round meeting. Sock nabbed the only set that Zverev has dropped thus far in New York.

Lloyd Harris, the 46th-ranked player in the world who is unseeded, has faced a bit more difficulty in advancing through to the quarters, but his struggles largely came in a first round bout with Karen Khachanov. Harris battled back from being down 2-1 to get through the Russian silver medalist, and it’s been smooth sailing since then.

The pair have met twice before, most recently in Cincinnati, where Zverev beat Harris in two sets. He took the first meeting in Cologne in three sets.

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Zverev Playing With Confidence

Coming into the tournament, the question for Zverev surrounded whether his success in the Olympics and Cincinnati Masters would translate into confidence at the US Open.

To this point, the answer has been a resounding yes.

The issue that pops up frequently for Zverev is double faults. He’s fourth on tour with five doubles per match, but he always seems to maintain his heavy groundstrokes with consistency. Through his first four matches, he’s hit 62 aces compared to only 10 double faults. Those numbers would rank him among the best servers in the world.

As the tournament progresses, it will get harder and harder for Zverev to limit that issue from his game. If he is able to, though, breaking him will be an incredibly difficult task.

Despite the solid serving, Zverev did face some resistance from Sock, who was playing some phenomenal tennis in the third round. The American took the first set 6-3, and looked to be controlling the match well.

Unfortunately, it was all downhill from there as he began to suffer a quad injury, and Sock had to retire down 2-1 in the fourth set. That was a situation that could have caused Zverev real problems, but he got lucky and went on to put in a strong performance against Jannik Sinner in the fourth round.

Harris Having the Tournament of His Life

Without a shadow of a doubt, the 24 year-old will look back on this tournament as his best work so far.

Prior to this event, Harris hadn’t qualified for a fourth round in any Masters or Grand Slam event. He had made two finals, one in Adelaide and one in Dubai, but those runner-up results will pale in comparison to this one.

Grand Slam events are the pinnacle of tennis, and players prioritize them far more heavily than other individual event. There are a number of reasons for this, including prestige, prize money and rankings points, and they all combine to put the four events on a pedestal.

For Harris, his route to this quarterfinal only makes the achievement more impressive. He’s gotten through three seeded players, including the aforementioned Khachanov, Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka. He also made easy work of his second-round foe, Ernesto Escobedo.

The South African has capitalized on his first serve, winning a minimum of 77% of his first-serve points in each match. That wasn’t enough to get by Zverev in Cincinnati, though, as Harris couldn’t translate his 83% first-serve win rate into a set.

Pick

There are bits of information to glean from Zverev and Harris’ previous matchups in Cologne and Cincinnati, as well as pieces to dismiss.

In the first matchup, Zverev’s win in Cologne, the two traded blows before Zverev ran away with the third in dominant fashion. There were break opportunities on both sides, but Zverev had nine to Harris’ four.

In Cincinnati, Zverev had the only three break opportunities of the match, as the serving had a more dominant role in the match. The German had his way with Harris on the ground, out-dueling him thoroughly when in groundstroke rallies.

A key factor for Zverev in both matches was his ability to be consistent with his serve. In the two meetings, he only hit a combined four double faults. As I mentioned above, that’s a recipe for success for Zverev.

Will it hold in this matchup? It’s a far different setting than the prior matches, and Zverev should have a level of comfortability in this matchup. Nevertheless, Harris has shown that he can hang with Zverev to some degree.

If nerves start to come with him, Harris will look to seize on his chances. How many chances will come? That’s the question.

I think the first-time quarterfinalist can feel confident that there will be at least a couple. When they come, I think he’ll seize on them to extend the match.

Pick: Over 34.5 -125

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