Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz square off in the final of the US Open on Sunday, Sept. 7. The match will start at 2 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
The most predictable but still exciting final is upon us. The champions of the last seven major titles will make it eight on Sunday and will also decide the leader of the ATP rankings, an added prize for the winner of this match.
Find my US Open Final preview and Sinner vs Alcaraz prediction for Sunday below.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
- Sinner vs Alcaraz Pick: Over 40.5
My Sinner vs Alcaraz best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live US Open odds page.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds
| Jannik Sinner Odds | -135 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 40.5 (-110 / -120) |
| Spread | Sinner -1.5 (-115), Alcaraz +1.5 (-115) |
| Sinner-Alcaraz H2H | 5-9 |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, 2 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Sinner vs Alcaraz Preview, Prediction
Jannik Sinner Betting Preview
The current World No. 1 dropped just two sets all tournament: the first one against Denis Shapovalov in the third round, and the second versus Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals.
This is his surface. Sinner has won 17 of his 20 career titles on hard courts, while claiming two on grass and one on clay. In 2025, he has a 12-1 record in games played on hard courts for a 92.3 winning percentage (80% in his career).
He's looked every bit the part of the favorite that's impossible to beat, racking up winners, hitting aces and often going to the net. His excellent lateral movement also allows him to reach shots that you would think for a man his size (6-foot-3) would be difficult.
His record this year is 30-4, and he's 20-1 in Grand Slams, with his only loss against Alcaraz in the Roland Garros final. If all these numbers seem a cold way to look at it, just watch the Italian play.
This would be enough to call him a lock to repeat in New York, but on the other side of the net will be the closest thing to kryptonite for this super player.
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
The Spaniard has been on a tear in Flushing Meadows for the past two weeks. Alcaraz hasn't lost a single set, and that includes a semifinal match against Novak Djokovic.
To his usual defensive prowess and variety of shots, Alcaraz has added a precision that's really hard to achieve when you take as many risks as he does.
He's made very few unforced errors in New York and will benefit from playing the minimum sets on his road to the final, as his stamina is crucial in these decisive and usually long matches.
For all of Sinner's dominance on hard courts, Alcaraz also has terrific numbers, although in his case, they pale in comparison to what he does on clay and grass.
He has a 21-4 record this year on this surface (84% winning percentage, 76.2% in his career) and has won seven of his 22 titles on hard courts.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Predictions, Betting Analysis
We all know they're the two greatest players on the planet. Even Djokovic had to admit that it's getting harder for him to compete with them.
The only mystery of the greatest show in tennis right now is who will win. It used to be Alcaraz, who dominates the head-to-head 9-5 and beat Sinner five times in a row between Indian Wells 2024 and Roland Garros this year.
However, Sinner just defeated him at the Wimbledon final and should have an advantage on this surface. He's the favorite and deservedly so.
The thing with Alcaraz is that he's capable of absolutely everything, as proven in New York, short hair or long hair, it doesn't matter.
The spread for the Spaniard is an enticing option since he's considered the slight underdog here. But the value on the over is just the best option to play. Every Grand Slam match between these two has gone to four or five sets, with 40 or more games played.
Pick: Over 40.5 (-110, DraftKings)
