Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula square off in the semifinal round of the US Open on Thursday, September 4. The match will tentatively start at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my US Open semifinal preview and Sabalenka vs Pegula prediction for Thursday below.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction
- Sabalenka vs. Pegula Pick: Sabalenka to Hit More Aces (-200 via DraftKings)
My Sabalenka vs. Pegula best bet is on Sabalenka to hit more aces in the match. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live US Open odds page.
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Odds
| Aryna Sabalenka Odds | -300 |
| Jessica Pegula Odds | +230 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-125 / -110) |
| Sabalenka-Pegula H2H | 7-2 |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Preview, Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview
Sabalenka remains the best tennis player in the world, even though she's had some difficulties lately with her supremacy on the WTA circuit once again being challenged by Iga Swiatek.
However, she remains superior in certain areas, particularly in terms of consistency. To illustrate this, one only has to look at the fact that she reached at least the semifinals at all four Grand Slams this season.
This isn’t the first time she has done so, proving her excellence regardless of surface.
She has one of the best serves in the world, is considerably improved on the second serve — thanks to a biomechanics specialist — and is one of the most aggressive athletes on the circuit, hitting harder than many men.
Her greatest asset seems to be her mentality. Sabalenka is very self-confident, able to quickly overcome negative moments and highly motivated.
There are some negatives, but very few.
Last season was excellent for Sabalenka, with Grand Slam trophies at this event and the Australian Open, plus major titles in Cincinnati and Wuhan. All of these came on hard courts, the surface where she dominates worldwide.
This new season has been more modest, though not weak. She's won titles in Brisbane, Miami and Madrid.
Still, something has gone wrong in the latter stages of Grand Slam tournaments. Although she could've won all three so far this season, she hasn't lifted a single trophy.
At the Australian Open, she lost a dramatic final to Madison Keys. At Roland Garros, she was beaten again in the final by Coco Gauff after committing 70 unforced errors. And at Wimbledon, she fell in the semifinals to Amanda Anisimova.
She also lost in the finals at Indian Wells and Stuttgart.
It’s unclear how much this pattern will weigh on her, as she'll surely be aware of repeatedly failing at these stages.
Still, I don’t expect her to be intimidated.
Here at the US Open, Sabalenka hasn't been spectacular, but she also hasn't been underwhelming. She hasn’t dropped a set, and in the quarterfinals, she benefited from luck, as her opponent Marketa Vondrousova was injured during training and couldn't play.
That means Sabalenka will be well-rested.
Jessica Pegula Betting Preview
Pegula remains a very solid player, one of the most consistent in the world. Being in the top four is a great personal achievement, and she even reached as high as No. 3.
It’s difficult for her to aim for world No. 1, especially with Swiatek and today’s opponent in such strong form, but Pegula's game isn't far behind.
Unfortunately, the difference is stark in terms of trophies. Pegula has no grand slam titles. She reached only one final — last year at the US Open — losing to today’s opponent. She'll be motivated for revenge, having learned from that match, but it may not be enough.
Pegula doesn’t have a huge weapon in her arsenal, but she pushes opponents into mistakes and often dominates matches mentally.
Last season was strong, especially with her US Open final. She also won titles in Berlin (grass) and Toronto.
This season has been a bit weaker, though not disappointing. Pegula reached the final in Adelaide, won titles in Austin and Charleston and made the final in Miami.
Recently, on hard courts, her form has dipped. She lost in the third round in Montreal to Anastasija Sevastova and in the third round in Cincinnati to Magda Linette, which is well below her standards.
Here at the US Open, Pegula has raised her level, not losing a set so far. She hasn’t had a very tough path, but she did defeat Victoria Azarenka and Barbora Krejcikova, both Grand Slam champions.
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Predictions, Betting Analysis
Sabalenka hasn’t been spectacular in New York, but she’s still the favorite and will likely be very motivated to win a Grand Slam this season after three dramatic failures.
Sabalenka is generally aggressive, with a powerful serve, and she produces a good number of aces — five against Polina Kudermetova, six against Leylah Fernandez and three against Cristina Bucsa.
Pegula, playing at home, will also be highly motivated, seeking revenge after losing last year’s final. However, she doesn’t seem in top form, either. She hasn’t dropped a set in this tournament, but recently lost on hard courts to Sevastova and Linette, both modest opponents.
Also, she hasn’t faced any top-50 WTA players at the US Open.
She has a decent serve, but she doesn't hit many aces — five against Azarenka (who's weak on return), two against Ann Li and one against Krejcikova.
Therefore, I believe Sabalenka will serve more aces.
Pick: Sabalenka to Hit More Aces (-200 via DraftKings)
