Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime square off in the semifinals of the US Open on Friday, September 5. The match will tentatively start at 7 p.m. and will be broadcasted on ESPN.
The Canadian star could rubber-stamp his dark-horse credentials with a win over the world No. 1, but beating the Italian has become world tennis' biggest challenge.
Find my US Open Semifinals preview and Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime prediction for Friday below.
Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction
- Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Pick: Over 31.5 | Auger-Aliassime +7.5
My Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime best bets are on the over and Auger-Aliassime to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live US Open odds page.
Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Odds
| Jannik Sinner Odds | -2500 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds | +1300 |
| Over/Under | 31.5 (-105 / -125) |
| Sinner-Auger-Aliassime H2H | 1-2 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Preview, Prediction
Auger-Aliassime Betting Preview
It took blood, sweat and tears, but Auger-Aliassime is back in a Grand Slam semifinal. The 2021 finalist had largely gone missing from the business end of top tournaments of late, not reaching a quarterfinal in any of the majors since the 2022 Australian Open.
After over four hours of battling, the Canadian prevailed over Alex de Minaur, winning 4-6, 7-6(7), 7-5, 7-6(4). In doing so, he secured his second top-10 win of the week, having previously gone 1-7 against tennis' top talent, including a run of six consecutive losses.
A lot of it has got to do with an unprecedented efficiency in high-stakes moments. Auger-Aliassime has won six tiebreaks (and zero losses) in route to his first Grand Slam semis since 2021.
This newfound determination has also shown in his game, with the Canadian going for all-or-nothing shots and hitting them more than once.
Where it hasn't shown is in his serving. Against de Minaur, the Canadian hit 22 aces but also recorded 11 double faults. He landed 64% of his first serves and was broken on four occasions. That simply won't do it against Sinner, who took five of the six break points he had against Lorenzo Musetti.
Another factor going against Auger-Aliassime is time on court. He's spent six hours more than Sinner playing, which is never positive when you're going up against arguably the most in-form player on the ATP Tour.
Sinner Betting Preview
It was another brilliant performance for Sinner on Wednesday, cruising past Musetti 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 in two hours. The World No. 1 was very aggressive from the baseline, hitting 42 winners while never giving his countryman the chance to get into the flow of the game.
The Italian's serving was on par, winning 91% of the points he played with his first serve while not conceding a single break. When he was pushed, he responded, saving all of Musetti's seven chances to take his serve.
Sinner has now reached the semis of every Grand Slam in 2025 and will make his fifth consecutive major final if he wins. Reaching the final is also a must if he wants to keep hold of the World No. 1 spot, although he'll have to defend the title if Carlos Alcaraz wins his semi.
The Italian actually trails Auger-Aliassime in their head-to-head tally 2-1, but both those victories came in 2022.
In contrast, Sinner's win was in this year's Cincinnati Masters 1000, where he only lost two games.
Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Predictions, Betting Analysis
Sinner can't disregard the momentum Auger-Aliassime has picked up coming into this one. The Canadian had to battle hard to push past de Minaur, but he's, at times, become a hitting machine, like against Andrey Rublev.
Yet, there's no denying the Canadian's run in this tournament has had less to do with any sort of uncontestable form and more with minimizing mistakes. He's taken chances when they've been presented to him and offering rivals as little as possible.
That's a very bad plan to put in front of the World No. 1, who thrives on rhythm from the baseline, consistent rallies and predictability.
If he stands any chance, Auger-Aliassime will need to fire at will and use a wide range of shot selection, apart from serving much better than he did against de Minaur.
I don't see that happening, but I think he'll still be a much more solid opponent than Bublik or Musetti.
Pick: Over 31.5 | Auger Aliassime +7.5
