Andy Murray vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds
| Andy Murray Odds | +165 [BET NOW] |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds | -210 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 38.5 Games [BET NOW] |
| Time | Thursday, 9:15 p.m. ET |
Odds updated as of Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
This isn’t the sentimental pick, but I have to fade Andy Murray’s metal hip on this occasion. Murray has shown post-surgery that he still has a lot of the skills (and heart) that made him a three-time major champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist, but he has also shown limitations in a few specific areas that FAA is prime to exploit.
Murray is still covering the court with high-end anticipation and good top line speed, but the quick changes of direction are still giving him problems. FAA takes the ball early, which means the Brit has less time to recover to the middle of the court, and less time to get his feet in position once the ball comes off Felix’s racquet.
If you give Murray time to recover his court position, he can still move quite well. I anticipate FAA will suffocate Andy’s movement with aggressive court position. Felix will also benefit from his disguise.
In recent wins over Francis Tiafoe and Alexander Zverev, Murray has been able to sit on their dual tendencies to take forehands cross-court. Felix plays with no such patterns.
If Murray were in his prime, I’d say the defense and movement could neutralize the offensive play of Auger-Aliassime, but nowadays, the Canadian should be able to generate plenty of winners and forced errors with his dictating play.
Part of that also comes down to the serve. The Brit’s return was once one of the most unshakable shots on tour. Now, he lacks the explosive agility required to cover the service box and make stretch returns.
Auger-Aliassime can pump it up the high 120s regularly, and he gets good slider action on his slice serve.
However, if there’s one thing to be concerned about with Felix, it’s his double-fault rate. FAA has doubled on 5.4% of service points in 2020, the sixth-highest mark on tour, according to data from Tennis Abstract.
The third and final detriment for Murray is his recovery. He played for four hours and 39 minutes against 5-foot-7 baseliner Yoshihito Nishioka in the first round, in which he saved a match point in the 4th and completed a comeback from two sets to none down.
Afterwards, Murray admitted to fatigue, complained of toe pain and resorted to an emergency ice bath in the locker room. Who could blame him?
Playing one physical match has been perfectly doable for Murray, but recharging the body in time for the next one has proven difficult. Last week, Andy scored three-set wins over Tiafoe and Zverev before putting up a listless performance against eventual finalist Milos Raonic.
For Murray to win, he’ll have to rely on his superior consistency. Surely, unforced errors are more likely to spray from the Canadian’s racquet. But Murray is no longer one for mistake-free tennis. He is susceptible to error-filled stretches within matches when he’s not feeling fresh physically.
I don’t expect Murray to have his A-game on Thursday night. FAA has the kind of offensive capabilities that should keep Andy scrambling and further wear down his legs.
I'm comfortable betting FAA up to -180.
