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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter Betting Preview: Finding Value in a Coin-Flip Bout

Sep 08, 2018 10:06 PM EDT

Danny Garcia (34-1-0, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs) Betting Odds

  • Garcia: -160
  • Porter: +135
  • Over/Under: 10.5 rounds (-365/+300) 
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • Channel: Showtime

September is a huge month for boxing fans. Most enthusiasts are already looking ahead to next weekend’s rematch between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin, but there’s a worthwhile fight Saturday night, as “Showtime” Shawn Porter takes on Danny “Swift” Garcia for the vacant WBC Welterweight title at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY.

There are some strong similarities between Porter and Garcia. Both fighters are former welterweight title holders, and both lost to current WBA welterweight champion Keith Thurman.

The two 30-year-olds rank among the top welterweights in the world, and the winner could end up in a big-money showdown against all-world talents Terrence “Bud” Crawford and Errol Spence Jr. or a potential rematch against Thurman if politics don’t get in the way.

Betting Market

This fight is expected to be razor tight, and the odds reflect that. At Bookmaker, this fight opened with Garcia as a -160 favorite on Aug. 15.

Garcia took some money about 10 days later, moving to -189, but the market has since adjusted back to where it started; Garcia is listed as a -160 favorite with Porter at +135.

At the current odds, Garcia’s implied probability of winning the fight is 59.7%, while Porter sits at 41.3%. — Michael Leboff

Styles

Porter likes his fights to be as rough and rugged as possible. In his close loss to Thurman two years ago, Porter was able to keep the champ out of rhythm by brawling instead of boxing.

His past two fights (vs. Adrian Granados and Andre Berto) were more of the same. Both opponents sustained cuts due to unintentional headbutts. You can expect to see that same style on Saturday night as well.

Garcia is a much more tactical fighter, and his counter-punching style is what scored him a ninth-round TKO victory over Brandon Rios his last time in the ring.

 

While Garcia has plenty of power and should get some opportunities for a big punch against Porter, don’t expect this one to end early. Garcia’s knockout wins have typically come against subpar competition. I see this one going to an exciting decision. — Malik Smith

Picks

Finding a winner in this bout isn’t easy, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value for a bettor.

Garcia is the more polished fighter and has a deeper skillset, but Porter is relentless — some would say wild — and easily the more aggressive of the two.

I think a lot of the money coming in on Garcia is because he took a split-decision loss against Keith Thurman, while Porter’s loss to Thurman was a unanimous decision. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as Porter made “One Time” uneasy in the ring while Thurman looked pretty comfortable against “Swift.”

Porter’s style is more entertaining and will look better to the judges. If he’s on his game, he will push the pace and fight on his terms. That should help when the judges put pen to paper.

Porter’s willingness to come forward is what I think gives him an edge in a very close fight. Either way, the general consensus around the boxing-sphere is that this fight is a coin flip, so how could you pass up the plus-money?

In a 50/50 fight, the value lies with Porter +135. — Michael Leboff (Boxing Record: 10-6-1, +16.75 units)

Credit:

Showtime Sports. Pictured: Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter

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