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Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury Betting Odds, Picks: Can The Gypsy King Pull the Upset?

Dec 01, 2018 2:20 PM EST
  • Deontay Wilder is the betting favorite to beat Tyson Fury in the heavyweight championship on Saturday, Dec. 1.
  • Wilder has been a favorite since betting was opened for the fight in August, but odds have moved towards Fury.
  • Wilder vs. Fury will take place at the Staples Center on Showtime Pay-Per-View.

Betting odds: Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury

  • Deontay Wilder odds: -145 ($145 to win $100)
  • Tyson Fury odds: +125 ($100 wins $125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 rounds (-150/+130)
  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 1
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET, Wilder v. Fury approx 11 p.m. ET
  • Channel: Showtime Pay-Per-View

All odds via 5Dimes and current as of Friday evening. 

It is very rare for a boxing match — especially one of this magnitude — to have odds this tight, so it’s no wonder that the fight is doing huge numbers in Las Vegas.

“There’s more money on the fight than any single college football game,” Westgate SuperBook supervisor John Murray told the Action Network on Saturday afternoon.

WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs), the fighting pride of Tuscaloosa, Ala., comes in as a slight favorite (-135 to -170) over lineal champion Tyson “The Gypsy King” Fury (28-0, 19 KOs), a native of Manchester, England.

A Unique Matchup

There are a few reasons these odds are so close. Not only are these two of the best three heavyweights on the planet, but they are great at very different things.

Wilder is known for his other-worldly power, while Fury is known for being a supreme tactician. Wilder hits like a truck, but Fury is incredibly hard to time and touch, so something’s got to give.

Another reason the boxing world — and the betting market — is split on this tussle is that there are significant chinks in the armor of both fighters.

Wilder, for all of his power and athleticism, still lacks polish. He only started boxing when he was 20 — he’s 33 now — so he doesn’t have the technical ability you’d expect from a heavyweight champion. This is why so many people have doubted “The Bronze Bomber” throughout his career.

Boxing purists are quick to jump on Wilder for the unorthodox way he fights, but I think he’s turned it into a positive. Boxers, especially at this level, expect their opponents to be up to snuff technically, so Wilder’s goofy style makes him a little harder to prepare for, throws off timing and opens up opportunities to catch his opponents flush.

Fury’s biggest flaw is that, well, he’s been through a lot since his historic upset over heavyweight kingpin Wladimir Klitschko in 2015. Fury battled alcoholism, drug addiction and depression for the better part of two years after beating “Dr. Steelhammer” and nobody knew if we’d ever see the charismatic Brit back in the ring.

With two tune-up victories over no-namers Sefer Seferi in June and Francesco Pianeta in August behind him, there are few people questioning Fury’s desire, but that doesn’t mean you can’t question whether or not his body will be able to handle 12 rounds against the most dangerous man in the sport.

While Wilder is awkward because he lacks boxing pedigree, Fury has terrific boxing ability and is purposefully awkward. “The Gypsy King” doesn’t have the one-punch power of Wilder, but he’s constantly moving, shifting directions and scoring as you try to touch him.

You could honestly say this about both fighters: There’s nobody else like either one of them.

The Case for Tyson Fury

Fury’s best chance of winning is to frustrate Wilder, get him to chase around the ring and use his speed and movement to consistently score. “The Gypsy King” has a knack for staying one step ahead of his opponents thanks to his quick movement and his high-level boxing IQ.

That’s what happened in the Klitschko fight. Fury was such a complex puzzle that Klitschko basically gave up trying to solve it while being slapped around.

Fury will need to follow a similar script. He will need to rely on his movement and unpredictability to keep away from Wilder’s jab. If the American can’t find Fury with his jab, the fight will tilt in Fury’s favor.

We should also expect Fury to go to the body a lot. “The Gypsy King” will want to put “water in the basement” to slow Wilder down and take some sting out of his punches. Going downstairs is something Fury excels at, so don’t be surprised if you see him changing levels all night long.

And finally, it has to be said that Fury will be the more skilled boxer in the ring on Saturday night. He comes from a family of fighters and was born to be a boxer. If he gets the most out of his skill and throws different looks at Wilder, he can get ahead on the cards and basically let the American chase him around the ring until the final bell.

The Case for Deontay Wilder

Could we be underrating Wilder?

Most people around the sport think the brash American is overrated, but there’s definitely an argument that the opposite is true.

We all know about his power — his 98% knock-out rate is right there on his BoxRec page — but is there more to Wilder than just the thunder in his mittens?

According to CompuBox, Wilder connects on 41% of total punches, 54% of his power punches and 33% of jabs. All three of those marks are tops among all active fighters. Say what you want about the way he looks in the ring, but those numbers are impressive.

Before his last fight, a come-from-behind KO of former contender Luis Ortiz, Wilder’s critics called out the quality of his opposition. Sure, Wilder ran through a bunch of nobodies to build his record, but nobody in the upper echelon of the division seemed willing to fight “The Bronze Bomber.”

And when they did agree to fight him, things fell apart — and it was never Deontay’s fault. Wilder agreed to go to Russia to fight Alexander Povetkin only to have him test positive for PEDs. Then Ortiz tested positive ahead of their first scheduled fight. Even Fury, who barged into the ring and called out Wilder after the American’s knockout win over Artur Szpilka in 2016, had to swerve a fight with Wilder so he could get himself right.

When Wilder finally got the opportunity to fight his first “real” opponent, Ortiz, he passed several tests. Most notably, he showed an incredible chin and ridiculous heart.

“The Bomber” was basically out on his feet in Round 7 against the Cuban, but weathered the storm before coming back with a 10th-round knockout.

Having said all of that, the path to victory for Wilder is clear. He must use his jab to keep Fury at the distance he wants so he can find a home for his right hand. He’ll have 12 rounds to land the show-closer, but that’s easier said than done against Fury.

Picks for Wilder-Fury

This fight has seemingly split the boxing world. There are good reasons to back either fighter. Fury is the more skilled, smarter boxer while Wilder has top-of-the-sport power and athleticism.