The Action Network golf guru Colin Davy built a U.S. Open-specific model that takes into account all the relevant metrics for a player: Overall strokes per round, adjusted for playing conditions and strength of field, plus player history and weather conditions. That model powers our U.S. Open Mega Guide, which you should definitely check out. And it’s also able to predict what an accurate matchup prop line should be.
Thankfully a ton of sites around the industry have provided us with loads of U.S. Open props to bet. In this piece, I’m looking at more than 70 matchup props from Sportsbook.ag. Lines are current as of Tuesday evening.
I’m posting a table at the bottom of the piece with each listed prop from Sportsbook, Colin’s predicted line, and the difference between the two. But before that, let me go deeper on eight that really stand out per our data.
Real line: Jason Day (+100) vs. Rickie Fowler (-130)
Model line: Jason Day (-264) vs. Rickie Fowler (+264)
Model pick: Jason Day +100
Former World No. 1 Day has flown a bit under the radar this season despite ridiculously good results. He hasn’t missed a cut in nearly a year, and in 2018 he’s finished in the top 25 in six of his seven events and top five four times. Add that to his elite history at the U.S. Open — he’s finished in the top 10 in four of his past five events — and it’s honestly astounding he’s an underdog to Fowler in this matchup. Colin’s model has him as a huge favorite, and thus this is easily the highest value prop of the week.
Real line: Jordan Spieth (-140) vs. Tiger Woods (+110)
Model line: Jordan Spieth (+174) vs. Tiger Woods (-174)
Model pick: Tiger Woods +110
Spieth is a former U.S. Open winner like Tiger, but he’s just not in good form coming into Shinnecock this week. He missed the cut at his last event (the Memorial) and hasn’t finished inside the top 20 since the Masters. There’s the argument that Spieth cares only about majors at this point, which is probably fair, but this course might be the hardest on tour. His iron play and putting have been suspect, and betting on that to turn around at this track isn’t wise, according to Colin’s model.