2025 U.S. Open Expert Picks, Odds: Long-Shots & Favorites to Win at Oakmont

• What: 2025 U.S. Open
• When: June 12-15, 2025
• Where: Oakmont Country Club, Plum, PA
• Par: 70
• Length: 7,255
• Purse: $21.5 million (2024)

The 2025 U.S. Open tees off tomorrow morning from Oakmont Country Club in suburban Pittsburgh for golf's third major championship of the year.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leads the field as the +275 favorite, according to odds posted by BetMGM. The price on Scheffler has reached historic territory after winning last month's PGA Championship.

Behind Scheffler on the odds board is Bryson DeChambeau at +750 odds to win the 2025 U.S. Open. DeChambeau has finished in the top five in both of this year's majors.

Next up on the odds board is 2025 Masters champion Rory McIlroy, along with Jon Rahm, who are both at +1200 odds at the U.S. Open.

Below you will find my U.S. Open picks and golf best bets preview for this weekend's major tournament.

2025 U.S. Open Expert Picks

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Bet Niemann Outright Instantly!

Joaquin Niemann to Win (+3000, 0.5u)

Joaquin Niemann Top 20 (+120, 1u)

If you have been following my PGA plays for any amount of time, seeing Joaquin Niemann on my card was probably the easiest read of all time.

I truly believe Niemann has a game built to win majors, and while we haven't seen it yet, he did finish T8 at the PGA Championship last month.

For what it's worth, Niemann is running through the LIV Tour, similar to how Bryson DeChambeau was before he won the U.S. Open last year.

The one thing that Niemann struggles with compared to other top golfers, is his birdie conversion, but I think that will work in his favor in a big way as I am not expecting many birdies out there this week.

Niemann is a top-10 ball-striker in this field, and more importantly, he is top 5 in strokes gained on approach on shots of 200+ yards, which I think we will be seeing plenty of this week.

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Bet Rahm Outright Instantly!

Jon Rahm to Win (+1200, 0.75u)

Jon Rahm Top 10 (+120, 1u)

I backed Jon Rahm at the PGA Championship, and while he never really had a true chance of winning the tournament thanks to the Scottie Scheffler's dominance, he certainly played well as he finished T8.

Rahm has played very well in these majors even after leaving for the LIV Tour, as he has a T14 finish or better in seven of the last 11 majors.

We know the upside of Rahm is good enough to win any major, and he certainly has the game to win a U.S. Open as we saw back in 2021.

Rahm ranks third in total strokes gained in my model while also ranking as the second-best off-the-tee player and third in tee-to-green play, that is a recipe for success at the U.S. Open. 

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Bet Lowry Outright Instantly!

Shane Lowry to Win (+5000, 0.25u)

Shane Lowry Top 20 (+150, 1u)

While I do think the long hitters will obviously have an advantage, I do think that advantage will become mute if those players aren't hitting fairways. That is where players like Shane Lowry come in.

We have all seen the videos of how brutal this rough looks here at Oakmont, and Lowry has the game to avoid trouble en route to being in contention.

Lowry ranks inside the top 20 of driving accuracy, and although he ranks outside the top 100 in driving distance, him being 11th in good shot percentage on 200+ yard approach shots helps counter that weakness.

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Bet Griffin Outright Instantly!

Ben Griffin to Win (+7500, 0.15u)

Ben Griffin Top 20 (+200, 0.85u)

There aren't many golfers out there who are playing better than Ben Griffin. He finished T8 at the PGA Championship then followed that up with his first solo PGA Tour win at the Charles Schwab, and THEN finished 2nd at the Memorial.

I think Muirfield could be a somewhat similar course comparison to Oakmont this week, with the difficult roughs and undulating greens being extremely difficult to manage.

Griffin doesn't have the distance to keep up with the bombers here, but he does rank 12th in strokes gained on approach on shots of 200+ yards, which will be key this week.

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Bet Bradley Outright Instantly!

Keegan Bradley to Win (+9000, 0.1u)

Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+250, 0.9u)

Keegan Bradley is playing some exceptional golf right now, which has me excited about his prospects for this week's U.S. Open.

What makes his recent success even more encouraging is that he is doing it at very difficult courses, as he finished T7 at Muirfield a couple weeks ago and T8 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last month.

When looking at my mixed strokes gained model, Bradley ranks inside the top 20 in every single category other than putting, something you aren't really going to be able to find in many spots in this field.

He also has a unique skillset as he is just one of two golfers in the field who rank inside the top 40 in both driving accuracy and driving distance.

2025 U.S. Open Odds

Odds via BetMGM and as of Wednesday

US Open Schedule, How to Watch

• What: 2025 U.S. Open
• When: June 12-15, 2025
• Where: Oakmont Country Club, Plum, PA
• Par: 70
• Length: 7,255
• Purse: $21.5 million (2024)

Round 1: Thursday, June 12

• Live stream: Peacock (7 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA (6 a.m. to 5 p.m.); Peacock (5 to 8 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, June 13

• Live stream: Peacock (6:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Peacock (6:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. and 7 to 8 p.m.); NBC (1 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, June 14

• Live stream: Peacock (10 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA (10 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET); NBC (12 to 8 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, June 15

• Live stream: Peacock (10 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: USA (9 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET); NBC (12 to 7 p.m. ET)

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